MLB 2021 ALCS ODDS, NLCS ODDS, and WORLD SERIES ODDS

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Last week we prepared everyone for the 2021 MLB divisional round but now it is time to present our 2021 ALCS odds and NLCS odds. The divisional round of the 2021 MLB playoffs came and went more quickly than I could have expected. Fortunately for the casual fan, most of the best teams are still in the hunt so we are in for some quality baseball. Unfortunately for the casual fan, the remaining teams are name-brand, powerhouse, traditional teams representing big cities – and the Astros.

Today we’ll look back at how our model performed in the divisional round and make our predictions for the the ALCS, NLCS, and world series winner.

Divisional Round Accuracy

Three of the 2021 divisional round matchups have already proven decisive. While our model has only correctly predicted the Astros-White Sox series, there is quite a bit to be optimistic about for our model. To read our predictions made before the divisional round, see our last post here.

First, let’s talk about the Rays-Red Sox series. Before the playoffs started, the Rays were the second betting favorite to win the championship and were quite heavily favored to take this series. However, though we still gave the Rays a very slight edge to take the series, we gave the Red Sox a better chance to win than any other source we’ve seen. It turns out this optimism was well-founded as the Red Sox ended up taking the series.

Nobody knew what to make of the Brewers-Braves series and I am fine saying that, though I predicted a close series, we ultimately were incorrect about the winner here. On the other hand, though, in our article before the last round we identified the Braves as an excellent value for world-series betting with a profit ratio of 43%. So, while we missed on this series, our model did correctly find some value in the Braves.

I don’t have much to say about the White-Sox/Astros series other than we predicted the Astros to win in a close series.

Now, let’s get to the numbers for the upcoming American League and National League Championship Series.

2021 ALCS Odds

Vegas has the Houston Astros as the current favorites to win the world series at a stunningly low +200. Ignoring any house advantage, this means that Vegas thinks Houston has a roughly 33% chance at winning the world series.

Boston, on the other hand, has kind of surprised everyone with this playoff run. Not only did most people think the Yankees would win the American League wildcard game, even more people thought that the Rays would be able to handle them. In neither case were those people right. In fact, the money is coming in fairly heavily for these former underdogs. Vegas has Boston at +400 which is a one-in-five chance (coincidentally, there are five teams left as I’m writing this so Boston has “as good of a shot as if we picked the winner out of a hat”).

What about this current series? Our model tends to agree with Vegas and thinks that the Houston Astros will be the team to advance to the world series. Our model gives the Astros a 63% chance at winning the ALCS.

2021 NLCS Odds

Unfortunately, the Dodgers-Giants series has one game left. Our model gives the Dodgers a 52% chance to take game 7 and, hence, the same probability to advance to the NLCS.

If you are the Braves, though, you probably are rooting for the Giants to win. In either case, the winner of Giants-Dodgers game 7 is favored over the Atlanta Braves. But by how much? If the Dodgers advance, our model gives the Dodgers a 60% chance at winning the NLCS. If the Giants advance, our model gives the Giants a 56% chance at winning the NLCS.

2021 World Series Odds (as of October 14th)

First, here are the odds from our model for each team to make the world series:

  • Astros: 63%
  • Winner of Dodgers/Giants G7: 58%
  • Braves: 42%
  • Red Sox: 37%
  • Dodgers: 31%
  • Giants: 27%

While the Giants and Dodgers are fairly significantly the two best teams left, they have the two lowest probabilities of advancing to the world series. This is due to precisely two facts. First, their odds are basically cut in half because of the coin flip that is game 7. Second, the Astros have better odds because the Red Sox are an easier task than the Braves are.

Now, here are our model’s probabilities for winning the world series in 2021:

  • Winner of Dodgers/Giants G7: 36.5%
  • Astros: 28.1%
  • Braves: 24.3%
  • Dodgers: 20.2%
  • Giants: 16.3%
  • Red Sox: 11.1%

Now, these numbers clearly reflect how much better the Giants and Dodgers are than the rest of the competition. The Astros have a fairly significant edge in probability of making the world series but the winner of Dodgers/Giants game 7 has a significant edge in actually winning the world series. That is because in a hypothetical matchup between Dodgers/Giants and Astros has the National League team wins about 60% of the time.

Finally, for all the betters out there, let us see which world series odds are good values and which are bad based on our estimate of championship probabilities. In the table below, WS% is our model’s estimate of a team’s world series probability. “Vegas ML” is the current money-line odds for that team to win the world series per this source. Implied profit is the expected percentage gain on a world series win bet for the given team.

ALCS odds and NLCS odds

Combining my model and the current Vegas lines indicates that the only good bet right now is on the Braves. Betting on any other team results in an expected loss of money.

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Published by jdashbrock