2021 Half PPR Draft Strategy (12 Teams, Picks 1-6)

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One of the most important parts of your fantasy football season is going into the draft with a well-defined and rehearsed draft strategy. However, because of the unpredictability of what everyone else in your league is planning to do, oftentimes the best draft preparation and best draft strategy is having an idea of which positions you want to take in each round.

In this article, we’ll go through a few different potential draft strategies at each draft position to help you determine which techniques are optimal. Do you ever wonder if going RB-WR is better than WR-RB? What about taking a QB in the 3rd versus in the 4th? In this article we’ll test the following common draft philosophies to see which is the best:

• RB-RB
• RB-WR
• WR-RB
• WR-WR
• Starters First
• Early TE
• Early QB
• No Quarter Backs
• No Wide Receivers
• No Running Backs
• BPA

Let’s begin by talking about the data we use and exactly how we do our analysis. If you want to skip ahead to the analysis for each draft pick number, use these links: Pick 1, Pick 2, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6 and Summary

Analysis Method

In any fantasy draft, there is randomness. Guys tend to go around their average draft position (ADP), but sometimes they’ll go 5-10 picks or more before or after that spot. Therefore, any analysis we do necessarily must incorporate these random variations. So, we used the tried and true Monte Carlo method to simulate thousands of drafts using each of the various techniques. We randomized the order of draft picks around each player’s ADP to simulate real drafting.

Then, for each draft spot (picks 1 through 6, here) we analyze a technique by forcing the computer to follow our strategy. The other teams select their players without consideration for position by simply taking the best player remaining in our randomized draft order.

After our team is drafted, we determine how well a draft strategy worked by adding up the projected points of our best starting lineup excluding D/ST and Kickers: 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers, 1 tight end, and 1 RB/WR/TE flex spot. Note that our numbers don’t include potential weekly points scored by a defense or by a kicker. If, for some reason, our team failed to select enough players for a valid starting lineup, then they are assigned 80% of ‘replacement level’ value for the open slots.

Finally, we must add a short discussion on where our data comes from. One of my favorite drafting resources is Beer Sheets. This is a fantastic draft aid which helps determine which players are expected to be better/worse than their ADP as well as help you determine which positions to select at which spots based on the scarcity of value remaining at a particular point. My analysis can largely be seen as an ‘add-on’ to the Beer Sheets that helps you prepare before the draft. My ADP and points projections are taken from this source.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Now, in this section we’ll describe the various strategies we test and what they mean to us.

• Most of the first two rounds are running backs and wide receivers. Thus, we will test every combination of running backs and wide receivers only for the first two rounds. For example, the ‘RB-RB’ strategy means we select the best remaining running back with our first round pick and the best remaining running back with our second round pick. The rest of rounds 3+ are allowed to proceed without positional restrictions.
• ‘Starters First’ means we fill our starting lineup as fast as possible. For us, we study one simple incarnation in which we force our team to select either a running back or receiver for the first four rounds, then a tight end, then a QB, then a flex player. The rationale here is that you sacrifice depth in order to maximize your starting lineup.
• Early TE means that we force our team to take a tight end in either round 1 or 2 (label: R1 TE and R2 TE, respectively) and let the remainder of the picks be best-player-available. The idea behind this draft strategy is that the number of dominant tight ends is much less than any other position so grabbing one of them early gives you a positional advantage. But, do you sacrifice too much?
• For us, early QB (label: EQB) means that we take a quarterback in the second while letting the rest of the draft proceed as normal. The rationale here is that quarterbacks are the highest scoring position so guaranteeing yourself the best quarterback gives you an advantage without sacrificing your first round pick.
• No quarterbacks (label: No QB) means waiting as long as possible before taking a quarterback. For our simulations, this means taking a quarterback in the 8th round and not before. Many people like this strategy because, while quarterbacks are the highest scoring position, there are often many good quarterbacks available late in the draft and it can be difficult to predict which will be the best.
• No wide receivers (label: No WR) means filling the remainder of your starting slots before wide receivers. For us, we will simulate this by simply avoiding wide receivers until the 6th round. The rationale here is that there is an abundance of wide receivers that all score about 10 points per game so wasting early picks on them is sub-ideal.
• No running backs (label: No RB) means filling the remainder of your starting slots before running backs. For us, we will wait to take any running back until the 6th round. The rationale for this strategy is that because running backs tend to go very early on, using this technique can guarantee yourself a positional advantage at all the other positions. But, like in the TE case, do you sacrifice too much?
• Best Player Available (label: BPA) means you pay no attention to position and just take who you think to be the best player available at each of your picks.

These are the strategies we will test over the course of 3,000 simulated drafts from each draft slot. Let us begin with Pick 1

1st pick Draft Strategy

The first pick is often seen as premium. And, really, it is. You have the best shot at the best player. And, because the drop off from best to second best is more than second to third, third to fourth, etc, this difference is huge. So, which strategy is best at the number one overall pick?

Strategy	Points	Rank
RB-RB	107	3
RB-WR	106.9	4
WR-RB	104	10
WR-WR	102.7	11
Starters First	110	1
R1 TE	105	8
R2 TE	108.5	2
Early QB	106.9	4
No QB	106.2	7
No WR	105.7	8
No RB	99.3	12
BPA	106.8	6

We repeat the same simulations for each of the first 6 picks and those results are summarized below.

2nd Pick Draft Strategy

Strategy	Points	Rank
RB-RB	106.2	3
RB-WR	105.9	6
WR-RB	104.2	10
WR-WR	102.1	11
Starters First	109.5	1
R1 TE	105.2	8
R2 TE	107.6	2
Early QB	106	5
No QB	105.4	7
No WR	105	9
No RB	99.4	12
BPA	106.2	3

3rd Pick Draft Strategy

Strategy	Points	Rank
RB-RB	105.7	3
RB-WR	105.4	5
WR-RB	104.4	10
WR-WR	101.9	11
Starters First	108.9	1
R1 TE	105	7
R2 TE	107.3	2
Early QB	105.4	5
No QB	104.7	9
No WR	105	7
No RB	99.8	12
BPA	105.5	4

4th Pick Draft Strategy

Strategy	Points	Rank
RB-RB	105.5	3
RB-WR	105	6
WR-RB	104.5	9
WR-WR	101.6	11
Starters First	108.4	1
R1 TE	104.7	7
R2 TE	106.8	2
Early QB	105.2	5
No QB	104.2	10
No WR	104.7	7
No RB	99.6	12
BPA	105.3	4

5th Pick Draft Strategy

Strategy	Points	Rank
RB-RB	105.6	4
RB-WR	105	7
WR-RB	105	7
WR-WR	102.3	11
Starters First	108.5	1
R1 TE	105.1	5
R2 TE	107	2
Early QB	105.7	3
No QB	104.4	10
No WR	105	7
No RB	100	12
BPA	105.1	5

6th Pick Draft Strategy

Strategy	Points	Rank
RB-RB	105.5	5
RB-WR	105.2	7
WR-RB	105.7	4
WR-WR	102.8	11
Starters First	108.2	1
R1 TE	105.4	6
R2 TE	107.2	2
Early QB	105.9	3
No QB	105.2	8
No WR	104.9	10
No RB	100.3	12
BPA	105.1	9

Trends and Conclusions

We see that overwhelmingly it is a good idea to fill your starting lineup as soon as possible. In every case, if you’re picking in the first half of the first round, the best strategy seems to be: 4 RB/WR, followed by a TE, followed by a QB, followed by a flex. This strategy is optimal from an intuitive perspective because you have a combination of few weaknesses, lots of traditional ‘studs’ in the first four rounds, and will likely have a TE or QB (or both!) advantage over whoever you play in a given week.

The RB-RB, RB-WR, and WR-RB strategies seem largely interchangeable while WR-WR typically leads to a significant disadvantage. This is not unexpected because running back scarcity is much higher than receiver scarcity. It is important to secure at least one running back in the first two rounds.

Continuing with that line of thought, both the ‘No WR’ and ‘No RB’ strategy appear to be sub-optimal but the ‘No RB’ strategy is consistently the worst to use. It is simply too difficult to find quality running backs late in the draft. No matter how stacked the rest of your roster is, if you are giving up 10 points to your opponent’s RB1 over yours, you can’t hope to win. Really, just let the draft come to you when it comes to the choice between running backs and receivers. Don’t force anything too early, but don’t ignore anything for too long.

The most surprising result of this draft analysis, to me, is the tight end results. My numbers, data, and simulations suggest that it is better to take a tight end with the first overall pick than it is a wide receiver. While neither of those will happen, it is important to let that sink in. Wide receivers are traditionally viewed as first round material while tight ends have to be elite to earn the same respect. But think of it this way: if running backs are important to draft early because of their scarcity, why shouldn’t the same hold true for tight ends? In fact tight ends are even scarcer. There are really only three tight ends who are good enough to be played in a Flex spot week in, week out. The three teams with Kelce, Kittle, and Waller will likely have a 4-8 point positional advantage over the other 9 teams every single week. Waiting an extra round to draft the RB10 versus the RB20 might only net you about 2-3 points of advantage.

Our simulations suggest second round Tight Ends to be the sweet spot if you’re drafting in the early part of the first round. A first round tight end is probably too much capital to spend if you have an early pick, but it is closer than you might think. We also point out one more thing: the difference between a first round TE and a second round TE gets smaller as the picks get later. It is probable that towards the end of the first round, nabbing a TE with your first pick might be an awesome draft strategy. We will investigate this in our next article where we consider picks 7-12.

Now, we move on to quarterbacks. Before doing any analysis and before starting my website, I had always been of the opinion that a relatively early quarterback was a good thing. To me, it felt like a third round quarterback was the sweet spot because not only are quarterbacks the highest scoring position and thus have the highest opportunity to create a significant positional advantage, but also because quarterbacks are comparatively safe. Running backs get injured at a very high rate. Receivers’ production can vary based on too many outside factors. Tight ends are impossible to predict outside the top 3. But right now, I could probably tell you the top 5 QBs next year in order and be mostly correct.

Our draft simulator can’t encapsulate ‘safety of a pick’ so we can’t really test that theory. However, we can see that early quarterbacks are generally preferable to waiting a long time on quarterbacks. For each of the first 6 picks, it is better to take a quarterback in the second round than it is to wait until the 8th to draft one. However, observing that the ‘starters first’ strategy consistently performs the best, the sweet spot is probably to draft a QB somewhere in the 3-6 rounds based on letting the draft come to you.

How Am I Drafting?

If I have a pick in the first half of the first round, I am probably going to plan to take a running back with the first pick. I will heavily consider a tight end with my second pick depending on how many are still on the board. If I have a very early third round pick, I might take the risk to see if I can get one of the big 3 TEs in the early third. This is one of those strategies where I know I need to take an early TE but if I can get lucky enough to spend a third instead of a second on them, it might pay off significantly.

Other than that, I am not going to force running backs or wide receivers at any particular pick. If there is good value at either of those positions I will take them. With quarterbacks, I will start looking in the third but most likely I see myself taking a QB in the fifth or sixth depending on where the value is. There are anywhere between 5 and 9 elite quarterbacks so, depending on your own valuations you should try to guarantee you end up with one of these guys.

A Summary of the Best Draft Strategies

Finally, we want to summarize overall how each draft strategy fairs if you pick in the first half of the first round. Clearly the ‘fill your starting lineup’ strategy is optimal. But, where do the others stack up? We computed the average points across each of the first six picks to rank the draft strategies. The averages are shown in the table below and are ranked in decreasing order.

Overall, I see four main tiers of strategies. The best is filling your starting lineup first. Second is taking an early tight end. The third tier is from Early QB down to WR-RB. Then the bottom tier is starting with two receivers and avoiding running backs.

As always, stay tuned for further parts in our draft analysis series including a similar analysis for picks 7-12 and a study of how things change in superflex leagues.

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