2022 MLB Playoff Odds and Predictions Tracker
The 2022 MLB Playoffs are here and that means its time to preview what we think is likely to happen. This article contains our estimated 2022 MLB playoff odds. We use two different models this year to give a little bit of variety and to see how things can change based on how the numbers are crunched. We’ll go through each team and discuss their outlook.
After that, we’ll look at a few different interesting numbers to help add some color to our otherwise straightforward World Series odds. Hopefully we’ll help you scout out some interesting storylines to increase your interest in the opening weekend.
We’ll update our 2022 MLB Playoff odds as the playoffs unfold and continue to post the results here. Use the directory below to jump to the latest predictions to see whose playoff odds are increasing or decreasing the most day-to-day.
2022 MLB Playoff Odds – October 15, 2022
The Astros, Phillis, and – notably – the Padres have each now taken 2 games in a best of five series. As a result, their championship odds are beginning to creep up.
| Team | Model 1 (Elo) | Model 2 (Win Pct) | Average | Difference |
| Astros | 30% | 23% | 26.5% | +6.5% |
| Yankees | 16% | 16% | 16% | -5% |
| Padres | 10% | 15% | 12.5% | +9% |
| Phillies | 10% | 14% | 12% | +3% |
| Guardians | 5.5% | 12% | 8.5% | +4% |
| Dodgers | 17% | 10% | 13.5% | -16% |
| Braves | 9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | -2.5% |
| Mariners | 1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | -2% |
The biggest story in the last few days is clearly the Dodgers. They were the elephant in the room. With their struggles, everyone else’s odds increase. The Dodgers 2022 MLB Playoff odds have dropped 16 percentage points in three days. It’s basically cut in half. The Braves and the Mariners are also struggling and have seen a decrease in their odds.
The biggest gains have been the Padres and the Astros. The Astros have given themselves an amazing chance of making the ALCS – nearly 93%. The Padres are similar – they make the NLCS now 62% of the time. As the playoffs continue on, the swings in championship odds will continue to swing more violently and rapidly. Every game is becoming more important.
2022 MLB Playoff Odds – October 12, 2022
The Dodgers, Phillies, Astros, and Yankees each won their first game of the divisional round. This should correspond to them receiving a boost in their daily championship odds.
| Team | Model 1 (Elo) | Model 2 (Win Pct) | Average | Difference |
| Dodgers | 36% | 22% | 29% | +3.5% |
| Astros | 20% | 20% | 20% | +4% |
| Yankees | 20% | 22% | 21% | +5% |
| Braves | 11% | 10% | 10.5% | -3.5% |
| Phillies | 6.2% | 12% | 9.1% | +3.8% |
| Guardians | 2.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | -3% |
| Padres | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | +0.9% |
| Mariners | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | -2.7% |
Note that, though the Padres lost game 1 against the Dodgers, their odds increased because the last odds were posted before the Padres clinched against the Mets.
The biggest mover was the Yankees, gaining 5% towards their championship odds. The biggest decline, on the other hand, was the Braves whose lost about 1/4th of their title odds after losing game 1 to the Phillies. Otherwise, around the board, winning or losing your first game of the divisional series was worth about 3% in 2022 MLB playoff odds. A little more for the teams on top, a little less for the others.
The odds for the remainder of these series:
- The Dodgers best the Padres in 86% of our simulations and make the WS 45% of the time.
- The Astros beat the Mariners in 82% of our simulations and make the WS 39% of the time.
- The Yankees beat the Guardians in 76% of our simulations and make the WS 40% of the time.
- The Phillies beat the Braves in just 54% of our simulations and make the WS just 26% of the time.
2022 MLB Playoff Odds – October 9, 2022
The Mariners, Phillies, and Guardians have already won their first round series and will see a corresponding uptick in their 2022 championship odds. The Mets-Padres series will be decided today. Here are how our predictions have changed
| Team | Model 1 (Elo) | Model 2 (Win Pct) | Average | Difference |
| Dodgers | 28% | 23% | 25.5% | 0 |
| Braves | 17% | 11% | 14% | -1.5% |
| Astros | 17% | 15% | 16% | 0 |
| Yankees | 17% | 15% | 16% | +1.5% |
| Guardians | 5.2% | 10% | 7.6% | +4% |
| Mariners | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | +3.5% |
| Phillies | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | +2.8% |
| Mets | 3.8% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 0 |
| Padres | 2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0 |
There is not a ton of change for the teams with first round BYEs, as is expected. However, each of the teams who have secured their first round victory have seen their odds roughly double. If the Mets win tonight, their odds will jump yo about 9%. If the Padres win, their 2022 MLB playoff odds similarly jump to the 8.5-9% range.
Methodology
We use Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the playoffs 100,000 different times to get a feel for what is likely and unlikely to happen. In each run, we use one of two different models to estimate the probability of one team beating another.
The first model we use is an Elo based model very similar to how 538 estimates their baseball odds. The second model is based on each teams’ season-long winning percentages based on the methodolgoy here. Averaging these two models’ results gives an ensemble estimate of how likely any given team is to win the world series.
2022 World Series Odds (Preview)
The following table contains the estimated world series odds for each of the 12 teams. Each column corresponds to a different model and in each case the probabilities are computed by dividing the number of simulations in which that team won by the total number of simulations (100,000).
Team | Model 1 (Elo) | Model 2 (Win Pct) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 29% | 22% | 25.5% |
Astros | 16% | 16% | 16% |
Braves | 17% | 14% | 15.5% |
Yankees | 16% | 13% | 14.5% |
Mets | 4.0% | 9% | 6.5% |
Cardinals | 2.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
Guardians | 2.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
Blue Jays | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
Mariners | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
Rays | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
Phillies | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
Padres | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% |
In each model, the Dodgers end up being fairly heavy favorites to win the 2022 world series. Though we only use two models, nearly every model on the internet is equally high on the Dodgers. More interestingly, this 25% chance to win is almost exactly equal to the corresponding +300 odds that Vegas is offering.
Breakdown of 2022 MLB Playoff Odds
The Dodgers are heavy favorites in each of our models. We estimate their odds to win the World Series to be greater than 25%. Personally, I’m surprised it isn’t higher, but the numbers are good for tempering expectations. Numbers take the emotion and any eye-popping stats out of the equation. However, with the best record, the best run differential, and the highest Elo of any team in a while, it is hard to bet against the Dodgers.
The other team that will push on the average baseball fans’ emotions is the Astros. While I haven’t personally assigned the Astros to a life-sentence of hatred and vitriol, they are also not out on parole yet. I think most fans agree. Still, the Astros are undeniably a great team and have the second best odds to win the World Series at roughly 16%.
As we’ll see a little bit later, the Braves are a fascinating case. They’re hot. They made up a (I believe) 10 game deficit against the Mets to secure the first round BYE after an exhilarating series last weekend. Because Elo ratings are not time invariant – meaning they are sensitive to the order in which wins and losses happened – the Elo model particularly loves the Braves and thinks they’re the second favorite. The season-long win percentage model is a little more tempered, but not much. Either way, we give them about a 15% chance to win.
The fourth favorite is the New York Aaron Judges Yankees. They’ve had quite an up and down season but have been extremely watchable solely because of the intrigue surrounding Aaron Judge and Roger Maris. They come in with the fourth best odds only slightly behind the Astros and Braves at 14.5%.
If it surprises you that the teams with the four best odds are the four teams with first round BYEs, you should think harder. A BYE can nearly double your title odds. If you think of each round as roughly a 50-50 outcome, then having a BYE changes a 50-50 first round series into essentially a 100% chance of winning your first round series. Even for heavily favored teams, a BYE can still multiply their championship odds by about 1.5x.
Next are the Mets with about a 6.5% chance of winning and their opponents the Padres with roughly a 2.2% chance of winning. While we give the Padres the worst odds of any playoff team, most of that is due to their difficult first round matchup against the Mets. The Mets are decidedly the best team of those not to receive a BYE (and it isn’t really close). The Padres unfortunately have drawn the short straw in the first round.
Next are the Mariners against the Blue Jays. These teams are both quite bandwagon-y. The Blue Jays have a fun roster to root for and have some legitimate chances to make some noise. They have a 4.5% chance to win the World Series and a roughly 1/8 chance to make the World Series. I’m sure the Mariners will also have quite a few fans hopping on board for they’ve made the playoffs for the first time in roughly 20 years. They aren’t quite as good as the Jays, though, and only win about 2.5% of the time.
Next are the Cardinals and the Phillies. I feel bad for the Phillies. I’ve watched enough sports to know that the writers would love nothing more than to sprinkle in a deep run for Pujols’ last rodeo. That means the Phillies would unfortunately have to fall in the first round. Still, our models don’t think either team has the chops to make it very far because of the buzz-saw Dodgers looming in their near future. The Cardinals and Phillies have 4% and 2.5% chances at winning the whole thing, per our model.
The final two teams are the Rays and the Guardians. Unfortunately, there isn’t a ton to say about either of these teams. Our models don’t think either team has much of a chance at all. The Rays get a 2.7% chance to win the world series while the Guardians do only slightly better up at around 3.5%.
Curiosities
What if the Mets hadn’t collapsed and had been able to secure the division title.
Going into last weekend, the Mets-Braves series was by far the most interesting. It was fairly likely that whoever won that series was going to win the NL East. More importantly, because the Cardinals were sufficiently far back in the standings, whoever won that series was going to get a first round BYE. As it turns out, the Braves took the series and secured the first round BYE
We ran our simulations assuming that, instead, the Mets had won. What happens is that the Braves’ and Mets’ odds become almost entirely flipped. The Mets’ championship odds jump up to roughly the 15% range while the Brave’s world series odds drop into the mid single digits. That series was wildly important for both teams.
In fact, we ran the numbers and Sunday Night’s game was more important to the Mets World Series odds than the first game of the playofs. This is because winning that game would likely have secured a BYE – the equivalent of winning an entire series.
Most Interesting First Round Series
A rough way to estimate the importance of a first round series is to add together the two teams’ playoff odds. The matchup with the highest combined playoff odds results in the most combined probability of making a deep run by whoever wins. Moreover, even if the first round series has a heavy favorite – like in the Mets v. Padres matchup – leading to a high combined probability, the potential first round upset makes for good rooting interest.
The first round series rank as follows based on our interest metric
- Mets-Padres, Combined WS Odds 8.7%
- Blue Jays-Mariners, Combined WS Odds 7%
- Cardinals-Phillies, Combined WS Odds 6.4%
- Rays-Guardians, Combined WS Odds 6.1%
While these are all fairly close, the odds that the winner of Mets-Padres goes on to win the world series is 40-50% higher than the odds the winner of Rays-Guardians goes on to win. To me, this list is a rough ranking of how I’m going to choose which games to watch as an impartial observer.
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