TheDataJocks’ 2022 NBA Playoff Preview
March, April, and May constitute the best portion of the sporting year; March Madness, the Masters, the NBA playoffs, the NFL Draft, MLB opening day, and even the Hockey playoffs steal the spotlight for nearly three months of the year. Our 2022 NBA Playoff preview is here to help you prepare for what to expect.
This year, things are a bit difficult to parse. Most people expect this year’s playoffs to have much less correlation with regular season success than in typical years. The uncertainty is high. For example, the favorite to win the Eastern conference is the eighth seeded Brooklyn Nets. Using Vegas data alone, the top seed in the East has only the sixth best championship odds and the fourth best odds to win the Conference of which they’re the top seed! Many more subtleties make this year particularly hard to predict.
Because of this, our 2022 NBA playoff preview uses a slightly more complex model than normal. Typically, we use a ridge regression technique combining Vegas data as a prior regularizing observed game data with our Bayes Ensemble method. However, this year we take a slightly different approach. Our model is now a mixture of three independent components
- Un-regularized ensemble ratings which are closely related to the numbers you will see in the simple rating system but with more emphasis placed on more recent games.
- Raw Vegas data
- Five Thirty Eight’s ELO-based RAPTOR ratings.
The first technique is included so that some credit is given to on-court performance and not everything is the product of group-think. The Vegas data is used to rapidly capture the impact of injuries and to incorporate the opinions of the community at large. The FiveThirtyEight data helps us determine where teams’ are relative to their full strength. Combining all three gives us team ratings which are the basis for our 2022 NBA playoff preview.
Let’s start with each team’s raw rating so we can see how good every team is.
2022 NBA Playoff Preview: Raw Ratings
The numbers next to a team’s name corresponds to our estimate of how good they are relative to a league-average team on a neutral court. If team A has a rating two points better than team B, then on a neutral court team A would be expected to win by two points. Home court advantage swings this between 2.5 and 3 points towards the home team. A team that is 12.5 points better than another team should be expected to win about 85% of the time. Here are the ratings for every team in the field:
Boston | 8.9 | Phoenix | 8.8 |
|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee | 6.0 | Utah | 6.2 |
Philadelphia | 5.9 | Golden State | 5.8 |
Brooklyn | 5.5 | Dallas | 4.9 |
Miami | 5.0 | Memphis | 4.7 |
Atlanta | 3.3 | Denver | 3.8 |
Toronto | 3.1 | Minnesota | 2.5 |
Chicago | -0.2 | Los Angeles | 1.9 |
These ratings indicate that the conferences are roughly equal in quality. However, the seeding is completely wrong. Miami is actually worse than Brooklyn; the 2nd seed out West is the fifth best team; and on and on.
Championship Probabilities
Overall quality is only part of the story, though. While you need to have a good rating to win the championship, you also need to have a little bit of luck by having an easy route. For example, the 76ers have a fairly easy route to their conference finals. They get to avoid the juggernaut Suns, they play the not-so-scary Raptors in the first round and get to avoid the other three top Dogs (Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Boston) until the conference finals.
By using Monte Carlo simulation and simulating the playoffs 10,000 times, we’ve computed each team’s probability of winning the championship, our 2022 NBA Playoff preview championship probabilities are summarized in the graphic below.
Phoenix is the favorite, winning the whole thing in about 30% of our simulations. The only other team that comes close to matching this chance of winning is the Celtics who take the Larry O’Brien trophy back to Boston about one in four times. The next biggest slices of the pie are the Giannis-led Bucks, the Curry-led Warriors, and the Embiid-led 76ers. Together, these three teams combine for 20-25% of the wins in our simulations. The other quarter of the pie is left to the other 11 teams.
The numbers are the numbers, but if you ask me what’s in my heart, I find it hard to see anyone beating Brooklyn in the Eastern conference. With Ben Simmons expected to make his debut in the first round, Kyrie able to play the full slate of games, and the best player in the world in Kevin Durant, the team is scary. Our model is quite a bit lower on Brooklyn, though, because of the credit that is given to regular season performance. On the other side of the bracket, I think it is Phoenix and Phoenix alone that has a shot. Golden State may beg to differ, though.
Next up in our 2022 NBA playoffs preview we’ll go through each of the first round matchups, see what our ensemble model says.
2022 NBA Playoffs Preview: First Round Matchups
Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks
Trae Young versus “Jimmy G Buckets where the G stands for gets” is going to be fun. If we learned anything from this Hawks team last year, it’s that ballers ball. Good players get better in the playoffs. Trae Young’s dissection of the New York Knicks last year was surgical. Luckily for Eric Spoelstra, the “Heat Culture” might be enough to do what neither New York nor Philadelphia could last year.
Our model thinks that Miami is about 1.5 points better on a neutral court than Atlanta is. With home court advantage, this pushes Miami up to a 63% chance to win the series. Looking at current Vegas data, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a trendy upset pick. I might do the same as well.
Philadelphia 76ers v. Toronto Raptors
Most folks agree that Philadelphia is likely to advance past Toronto, but many Philadelphia fans are worried. This game is arguably the best first-round example of the two competing team building philosophies: stars + filler versus a balanced-roster approach. The 76ers are led by two complementary perennial all-star candidates in Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Raptors, on the other hand, have lots of above average players with no truly game-breaking talents. I think that Embiid proves too much with nobody on the Raptors able to put up much of a defense.
Our ensemble model has Philadelphia 2.5-3 points better than Toronto on a neutral court. This combined with Philadelphia having home-court advantage is going to prove too much. Our model has Philadelphia taking the series 70% of the time. In ML terms, we’re putting Philadelphia at about -230 to win the series. This is actually a bit higher than Vegas; most books have Philadelphia around -170 to -180 to win. I might take that bet.
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls
Boy the Bulls were an interesting story this season. At one point, Derozan was getting MVP talk. Not necessarily “He is going to be MVP” talk, but “he is going to get some votes” talk. Even with an interesting cast around him, this Bulls team isn’t going to have enough. Milwaukee is the reigning champion for a good reason.
Our ensemble model has Milwaukee favored by between six and six and a half points. Even @ Chicago, Milwaukee should be favored to win. Our model has Milwaukee winning the series with 86% confidence. This is roughly equivalent to Milwaukee somewhere north of -600 to win the series. Vegas books are fairly closely in line with Milwaukee typically in the low -500’s. I think Chicago will take one at home and the Bucks will win in 5. There is a decent chance Milwaukee wins in 4 and is able to rest up against the winner of the (likely to go to 7 games if you ask me) Boston-Brooklyn matchup.
Boston Celtics v. Brooklyn Nets
This series is hands down the best first round series. So many fun questions will be answered here. Is Boston for real or was their second-half run a fluke? Is Brooklyn better than their regular season resume (the answer here must be yes, but how much better)? And by far the most fascinating storyline of any first-round series in a long time: What is Ben Simmons going to look like? Is he going to be confident (is that even a possibility anymore)? Will he do well on a team which gives him the space he needs – space that Embiid couldn’t allow him to have? Will he thrive on a team already loaded with offensive firepower but sorely in need of a defensive anchor? This series is one to watch every minute of.
I wouldn’t recommend betting on this series. My empirically assigned uncertainty surrounding this series is high. Boston is the best team in both my model and 538’s model. Brooklyn is the best team implied by the Vegas odds. Someone has to be wrong. Our model, which blends all three of these aspects into a single number, thinks Boston is about 3.5 points better than Brooklyn on neutral court. With home court advantage, this would be good for Boston to win the series about 72% of the time which is BOS -260. Vegas has this close to a tossup but generally is favoring Boston. Who knows.
Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans
Turning our attention to the Western conference, next up in our 2022 NBA Playoff preview is the Suns versus Pelicans. While Phoenix was likely to win this first round matchup no matter what happened, I think Paul George’s positive covid test may have made the road a little easier than it should have been. Our model has the Pelicans tied for the worst team in the playoffs with the Chicago Bulls. This series shouldn’t go past 4 games.
Our model thinks that Phoenix is 9 points better than New Orleans on a neutral court. That means even at New Orleans, Phoenix should be comfortably favored by about 6. We’re giving the Suns a 94% chance to win this series. Frankly, I don’t see the Suns losing even a single game so no matter how strong the moneyline is in the Suns favor, I would probably bet it.
Dallas Mavericks v. Utah Jazz
This is another series I wouldn’t bet on because of the uncertainty surrounding Luka Doncic. Luka has been much better in the second half of the season than in the first half. However, a calf problem is threatening to keep him out of at least the first game of the series. The extent of this injury is unknown and this causes my uncertainty around the series to skyrocket.
Our model actually really likes the Jazz and thinks they’re about 1.5 point favorites over the Mavs on neutral court. This is enough to slightly overcome Dallas’ home-court advantage and we think that – if Luka plays – Utah wins the series 56% of the time. If you think Luka will play, then Dallas’ current moneyline at +170 or so might be a decent value-bet. If he doesn’t play for most of the series then Utah’s -200 is an absolute steal.
Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets
Golden State is a bit like Brooklyn in these playoffs: surrounded by question marks but if everything goes right they are a bona fide title contender. Though they all played well individually this season, the Warriors could never really get Curry, Thompson, and Draymond Green to play well at the same time. If they do and Jordan Poole continues to play as well as he has been, watch out. On the other hand, the Nuggets are led by MVP-favorite Nikola Jokic. Unfortunately for Denver, missing Jamal Murray severely limits their ceiling. While Jokic is a force unto himself, I don’t think he’ll be enough.
Our ensemble model has Golden State two points better than Denver on a neutral court. Combining this with home-court advantage gives the Warriors about a 65% at taking the first round series. This is equivalent to a moneyline of about GSW -190. Vegas generally has this matchup a bit closer with the Warriors down at around -120. I might consider betting on the Warriors, but it really boils down to whether or not the Warriors’ big three can play together.
Memphis Grizzlies v. Minnesota Timberwolves
This might be one of the most fun matchups to watch from a young talent perspective. I actually think this series will be close and this will force Ja Morant, KAT, and Anthony Edwards to show the world what they’ve got. At least, I hope so. Memphis is another one of those teams that is a complete team. The difference between them and other teams that boast well rounded rosters is the presence of a superstar like Ja. Somehow, though, my gut says that Minnesota is going to give Memphis more of a scare than we think.
Our model isn’t terribly high on the Grizzlies as the 2 seed. We have them only 2 points better than the T-Wolves on a neutral court. However, this advantage plus home-court is good for a 66% at the Grizzlies advancing to the second round or MEM -200. Vegas likes Memphis a bit more than we do, having them closer to -275 to win the series. Definitely keep your eyes on this battle of North America’s apex predators.
While that finishes our 2022 NBA Playoff preview, we’ll continue to post updates, graphics, and more content on social media so follow us on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to stay connected.
