Week 14 2024 NFL Model
Last week, our 2024 NFL model correctly predicted 12 of the 16 games. So far on the season, it is among the most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and has predicted over 69% of games correctly in the 2024 NFL season. The table below contains our week 14 predictions
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Predicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DET | GB | 5.3 |
| 14 | MIA | NYJ | 6.7 |
| 14 | MIN | ATL | 6.7 |
| 14 | PHI | CAR | 14.4 |
| 14 | NYG | NO | -1.6 |
| 14 | TB | LV | 7.8 |
| 14 | TEN | JAX | 4.4 |
| 14 | PIT | CLE | 7.4 |
| 14 | ARI | SEA | 4.7 |
| 14 | LAR | BUF | -2.3 |
| 14 | SF | CHI | 5.4 |
| 14 | KC | LAC | 5.0 |
| 14 | DAL | CIN | -5.2 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
Below is our overall power rankings for week 13 and a history of rankings over the last few weeks.
The story of the last few weeks is that the model is settling down and the top teams are fairly locked in. The only teams with any significant amount of uncertainty are the Jets, 49ers, Bengals, and Chiefs. The first three teams were all teams with high expectations entering the season that have disappointed. The Chiefs have looked mediocre, but keep winning. It is always hard to doubt them.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed.
Perhaps surprisingly, things are opening up a bit in our model’s super bowl odds. Pittsburgh has entered the conversation for the first time, finally eclipsing a 5% probability of winning the championship. Kansas City has bounced back this week after having some question marks the previous few weeks. Other than that, it Detroit, Baltimore, and Buffalo remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year.
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