NBA Christmas Day Odds and Power Rankings
If you’re anything like me, the NBA Christmas day lineup is perhaps the best part of the day next to spending time with your loved ones. We’re talking about quality sports from the second you finish opening gifts to the second you pass out on the couch after over-eating all day. Following up on our tradition started on Thanksgiving with showing you what our model had to say about NFL odds, we want to take the opportunity to provide NBA Christmas day odds. We’ll also take the opportunity to update everyone on the state of affairs in the NBA and provide an overall power rankings.
The Slate of Games / NBA Christmas Day Odds
The NBA has given us five games to enjoy on Christmas this year. It is a tough task, really, picking the best possible matchups before the season even starts. Luckily, unlike the NFL, we aren’t forced to watch the same few (bad) teams every year. The NBA has the freedom to try to make the best possible matchups on Christmas day and this year I think they did fairly well. The only NBA Christmas day game I am simply not that excited for is Nets-Lakers. The rest are all fun matchups that have a good chance at being close. Let’s go through the games one-by-one and give our NBA Christmas day Odds.
All these odds are a result of our Bayesian Ensemble model for ranking NBA teams. So far this year, our model has correctly predicted 63% of all games played. On ThePredictionTracker.com, this would be good for the fifth best model out of twenty that are tracked. Our model has comparable accuracy to the Vegas opening line so far this year. The point of bringing this up is not to pat ourselves on the back, but rather to lend some credibility to the predictions being made.
For a refresher on how our ratings work: the Bayes Ensemble rating assigned to each team in the coming discussion is a spread measured relative to a league average team. Thus, if our model gives a team a +3 rating, it means I think they’ll beat a league average team by 3 on a neutral court and be a pick ’em at home.
Hawks @ Knicks
While neither of these two teams are likely title contenders, they are two of my favorites to watch. Budding stars and a playoff rematch are just two of the storylines that everyone will be talking about around this game. The Hawks come into this game at a +1.9 rating, sandwiched right behind the Nuggets and right ahead of the Celtics. This is good for the 9th best team. On the other hand, the Knicks are a bit further back with a -1.3 rating, good for 19th best.
However, this game is at New York so things are gonna move quite a bit closer. In fact, our prediction is Atlanta -0.2. Basically, this is a tossup. The odds are 51% in favor of Atlanta, and to bet the money line you want anything more favorable than +100 on either side.
Celtics @ Bucks
The second game of the day is the Boston Celtics playing in Milwaukee against the reigning champion Bucks. If you ask both Milwaukee fans and Celtics fans, they probably aren’t happy with their teams’ records so far this year. However, if you poll almost any generic NBA fan, they’ll probably say the same.
In fact, though the Bucks are only on pace for about 48 wins, their rating is around a +3.7, good for 6th best in the NBA and right behind the Heat. Our model thinks they are better than their record says they are, that they’ve been under achieving a bit so far this year. The Celtics, on the other hand, are closer behind than you might think: our model has them at a +1.6 on the year.
Putting these two records together gives us a predicted line around Bucks – 5.1 for their Christmas day matchup. This gives the Bucks about a 66% chance of winning. If you’re betting the money line, you want something more favorable than about Bucks -230 or Celtics +180.
Warriors @ Suns
This one is, hands down, the game of the day. The Suns and the Warriors have the two best records in the NBA. Our rankings have them as the best and third best team in the league so far this year (with the spoiler Jazz sandwiched between, more on them later)
The Warriors came into the season as the 4th betting championship favorite and the Suns the sixth. Our model has the Warriors as the best team in the league all the way up at a +8.9 while the Suns are close behind at a +7.0.
However, the game is in Phoenix so things should swing in the Suns direction. Our model thinks the right line is about Suns -1.1 which, again, is about a 51% winning chance for the Suns. On the money line, if anyone gives better odds than +100 on either team, it should be fairly decent value.
Nets @ Lakers
Before the season, the NBA probably thought this was their best possible matchup for Christmas day. However, the Lakers have been incredibly disappointing (again) and with Anthony Davis missing the game, they should be even worse. (However, if you ask some of my friends, they might be better without AD. No shade, just reporting what my eyes and ears tell me.)
Here’s a fun data point: if you fire up our model in the setting giving absolutely no weight to pre-season expectations, the Lakers are the seventh worst team in the NBA this year. The Lakers on-court performance this year has been roughly the same as the Kings and worse than the Wizards, just to name a few stunning examples. They’ve truly been terrible so far.
The Nets come into the game at about a +4 rating, good for fifth best in the league, while the Lakers are actually below average at a -0.1. This number is even more impressive (-ly bad) when one considers that the Lakers started the season as the second best team in our model and have fallen down a full 9+ points in rating.
The game is in Los Angeles, though, so the raw model prediction shifts down to Nets -1.1. Somehow, this number matches almost perfectly what current odds on, for example, Fan Duel are. I’m a bit confused because I thought my model would be way too far in favor of LAL, but they agree. Still, if you twist my arm and make me bet the spread, I’ll absolutely take Nets -1.
Mavericks @ Jazz
The last matchup of the day looks good on paper but is projected to be the least competitive of the day. The Mavericks have been pretty disappointing this year and are sitting right around the .500 mark. The Jazz, on the other hand, are playing extremely good basketball. In fact, if not for the Suns and the Warriors, everyone would be talking about this Utah team right now.
Our model has the Jazz as the second best team overall, their rating is +8.5. The Mavericks, on the other hand, are way down at a fairly mediocre +0.9. They aren’t bad, they just aren’t title contenders with the way they’re playing right now.
With the game being played in Utah, our model gives this game a rating of Utah -10.6. This converts to something like an 88% chance for Utah to win the game. If you’re betting the money line, you want anything more favorable than roughly Utah -1200 or Dallas +700. However, Vegas has picked up on this trend and the lack of competitiveness in this game and most lines sit even further in Utah’s favor. Bet carefully, here.
Power Rankings
The table below contains the power rankings of all teams through this point so far in the season according to our model.
| Team | Rating | |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 8.9 | |
| Utah Jazz | 8.5 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 7.0 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 4.0 | |
| Miami Heat | 3.8 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 3.7 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 3.2 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 2.0 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 1.9 | |
| Boston Celtics | 1.6 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 1.4 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 1.3 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 0.9 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 0.8 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 0.4 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 0.3 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 0.2 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -0.1 | |
| New York Knicks | -1.1 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | -1.3 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | -1.3 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | -1.5 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | -1.8 | |
| Washington Wizards | -2.1 | |
| Sacramento Kings | -3.4 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | -3.5 | |
| Houston Rockets | -7.7 | |
| Orlando Magic | -8.3 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -8.7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | -9.0 |
You can use these raw rankings and ratings and your own notion of whether a team is better than their performance so far this season to form your own NBA Christmas Day Odds.
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