NFL Playoff Odds and 2022 Super Bowl Odds
From an outside perspective, this year’s NFL playoffs seem fairly wide open. Before the start of the playoffs, we wanted to fire up The Data Jocks’ model to see if the calculated 2022 Super Bowl Odds reflect this expectation. From a gut check perspective, there are about 10 teams with a chance to make and win this year’s Super Bowl – the top 5 teams on each side. But, who are the actual favorites?
Our model uses a mixture of a prior (data from the previous year which seeds the model with a good guess about how good a team is before any games are played) and actual observed game scores to compute how good each team is. Moreover, to reflect how quickly the football landscape can change, more recent games are given more weight than games at the beginning of the season. This is meant to combat difficulties like the Ravens becoming a much worse team at the end of the season due to Lamar’s injury. When all is said and done, our model accurately predicted 65.2% of the games in the NFL this year. This makes our model the second best NFL model on The Prediction Tracker.
We’ll begin this article by discussing each of the first round matchups. Then, we’ll go through each team’s probability of making or winning the Super Bowl. To jump straight ahead to the data, follow this link.
AFC Wildcard Odds
The first matchup in the AFC is the Raiders at the Bengals. The Bengals have come on strong at the end of this season, but so have the Raiders. Our model thinks the Bengals are a +4.6 while the Raiders are actually below league average: -2.2. These ratings combined with the game being IN Cincinnati lead to a model prediction of Bengals -9.8. This corresponds to a roughly 84% chance of the Bengals advancing. As a Bengals fan myself and knowing the perils of tempting fate, Cincinnati’s buzzword for the day should be cautious optimism.
The second matchup in the AFC is the Patriots @ the Bills. This matchup is a nightmare scenario for both teams. Our model has the Patriots and Bills at the second and third best teams in the entire NFL with ratings of +10.2 and +9.0, respectively. The game is in Buffalo which should swing things slightly towards the Bills. Our line is Bills -1.8 which is a 57% probability of the Bills advancing. Not only is it a nightmare to play a team for the third time in a season, you never want to play against a criminally under-seeded team in the first round. Bad news for the AFC East.
The final AFC matchup is the Steelers at the Chiefs. This one shouldn’t be close. Our model likes the Chiefs the most out of anyone in the league at a whopping +11.6. The Steelers, on the other hand, are a below league-average team all the way down at -1.7. With the game in Kansas City, we think the correct line is Chiefs -16.3. Converting this to a probability indicates that Kansas City has a 95% chance at winning this game. This number tracks pretty closely with the wisdom showing up in a lot of online articles saying “Chiefs – 12 is too generous to the Steelers“. This one probably isn’t worth watching unless your last name is Mahomes or you liberally refer to your friends as Yinzers.
NFC Wildcard Odds
On the NFC side, the first game is the Eagles at the reigning champion Buccaneers. Tampa is hurt, so their offense isn’t as potent as the team that played in the Super Bowl last year. They still come in at a +6.4 rating. The Eagles aren’t terribly far behind at a +3.4 rating. With the game in Tampa, we give a line of Tampa -6 for this wildcard matchup. In probability terms, Tampa has a 73% shot at advancing. If you want me to pick an upset this week, I might take the Eagles over the Bucs
Next up is the 49ers at the Cowboys. The Cowboys come in as the 6th best team with a +6.8 rating while the 49ers are perhaps surprisingly close behind at a +3.7. The game is in Dallas so our predicted line is Dallas -6.1 This is the same line as the Eagles/Bucs game and so you could probably guess that we give Dallas a 73% shot at winning. I really don’t have anything fun to say about this game, maybe a good time to go to the grocery.
The final game is a fun one: Cardinals at Rams. Not only is this a divisional matchup for the third time this season, these two teams were among the early season favorites to take the title. Having split the season series, this promises to be close. Our model has the Rams at a +4.5 and the Cardinals closely behind at +3.6. The home field advantage shifts this just a bit more into the Rams favor for a final line of Rams – 3.9. Probability wise, we think the Rams have about a 65% chance at advancing. Though the Rams are favored, this will probably be the game outside of my own team I’m most excited for.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
We simulated the playoffs using our rankings and the probabilities given above to see how likely it was for each team to advance. The graphic below shows each team’s super bowl odds, their probability of making the super bowl, and their probability of advancing to the conference championship round.
The big winners here are the Chiefs and Packers. The Chiefs are the top team in our rankings and their super bowl odds reflect this fact very clearly. Even in the AFC, which our model thinks is tougher, the Chiefs make it out roughly half the time. The Packers have the highest odds to make the super bowl because of a combination of being the best team in the NFC and having the all-too-valuable first round BYE and home field advantage. Being the fourth best team overall with the probable MVP doesn’t hurt either.
There are a few notable differences between our computed Super Bowl odds and the current Vegas Super Bowl odds. Most simply put, our model is higher on the favorites and lower on the other contenders. Vegas has the Chiefs and Packers at +380 and at +500, respectively. That means that if our model is accurate, betting on either Green Bay or on Kansas City should give you very good ROI because we think their Super Bowl odds are better than what Vegas says. Make sure to make any such bets before the Patriots-Bills game because if the Patriots win (which we think is decently likely), the Super Bowl odds for the the Chiefs should skyrocket. The same can be said in the NFC: If you’re going to bet on the packers, do so before the Bucs-Eagles game because if Philadelphia wins, the Packers Super Bowl odds will jump.
On the other hand, for the other contenders, there is basically no good value available on the Vegas betting markets. Vegas has the Titans, Bucs, and Bills all around +750 to +800. This means that Vegas simply won’t pay enough for how likely I think it is that any of these teams win. The biggest problem for the Bills is their first round matchup against the Patriots. If Buffalo beats New England, then our model thinks the correct line is closer to Buffalo +650.
There is one major culprit, though, that explains why we see such divergence between what I think and what Vegas thinks about the Bills and the Titans. That culprit: the Patriots. Vegas has the Patriots as the 4th least likely to win the Super Bowl. This squares fairly well with the 5 seed that they earned. However, our model thinks the Patriots are actually the second best team. Because the Patriots are seen so favorably by my model, they take a lot more out of the Bills and the Titans than Vegas thinks. That is, the Bills and Titans road to the Super Bowl is much harder than it looks hence their diminished Super Bowl Odds.
Don’t forget to check back for later rounds to see updates!
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