Women’s March Madness 2022 Odds and Upset Predictions
The women’s college basketball tournament is criminally underrated. If you didn’t watch Ari McDonald take on Stanford in the title game, you missed one of the best basketball games of the year. This year’s Women’s March Madness tournament has many equally intriguing storylines.
The ever-competitive UConn Women’s team finally has their star Paige Bueckers back after losing the former “player of the year as a Freshman” to injury most of her sophomore campaign. The IUPUI Women’s team made the Women’s March Madness tournament while the men’s team held open tryouts less than a month ago. Stanford is hoping to repeat as champs for the first time since the Huskies won four in a row in the mid 2010s. And, as is always the case, the most interesting storylines will emerge as the tournament goes on.
In the same way as we did for the Men’s bracket, I want to go through the Women’s bracket to see who the title favorites are and who the most likely bracket busters are. Let’s start with the title favorites. The following graphic shows the title odds of the top few teams in the Women’s March Madness tournament. I apologize that all of the favorites are slightly different shades of red without good alternate colors, but that is in no way in my control.
2022 Women’s March Madness Championship Probabilities
The following table shows the odds for each team to advance to the Round of 32 or the Sweet 16 during the first weekend of play.
| Team | Rating | R32 | S16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 36.52 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| NC State | 34.11 | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Stanford | 33.64 | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Louisville | 28.92 | 1.00 | 0.77 |
| North Carolina | 30.20 | 0.96 | 0.66 |
| Texas | 28.43 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Connecticut | 27.97 | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Iowa St | 26.93 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Baylor | 25.39 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| BYU | 25.15 | 0.97 | 0.51 |
| Oregon | 25.34 | 0.92 | 0.49 |
| Iowa | 24.87 | 0.99 | 0.77 |
| Tennessee | 25.01 | 0.95 | 0.49 |
| Michigan | 24.46 | 1.00 | 0.48 |
| Arizona | 26.37 | 0.98 | 0.34 |
| Maryland | 23.83 | 0.98 | 0.60 |
| Indiana | 23.16 | 0.99 | 0.75 |
| Notre Dame | 24.16 | 0.91 | 0.49 |
| LSU | 23.10 | 0.94 | 0.64 |
| Oklahoma | 23.93 | 0.95 | 0.50 |
| Nebraska | 23.70 | 0.64 | 0.17 |
| Kansas St | 22.77 | 0.81 | 0.07 |
| Georgia | 22.01 | 0.83 | 0.24 |
| Utah | 22.65 | 0.50 | 0.13 |
| Georgia Tech | 22.36 | 0.64 | 0.06 |
| Arkansas | 22.55 | 0.50 | 0.12 |
| Virginia Tech | 22.23 | 0.59 | 0.25 |
| Mississippi | 21.25 | 0.68 | 0.21 |
| Ohio St | 20.35 | 0.73 | 0.30 |
| Gonzaga | 20.64 | 0.36 | 0.06 |
| FL Gulf Coast | 20.33 | 0.41 | 0.15 |
| Kansas | 19.39 | 0.36 | 0.02 |
| Colorado | 18.58 | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| Montana St | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Delaware | 6.15 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Florida St | 15.22 | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| Jackson St | 10.07 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Fairfield | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mt St Mary's | -11.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Washington St | 15.31 | 0.19 | 0.00 |
| Massachusetts | 12.68 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| IUPUI | 10.13 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Kentucky | 14.09 | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| Princeton | 18.35 | 0.69 | 0.20 |
| Charlotte | 4.62 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| UCF | 17.51 | 0.61 | 0.07 |
| Florida | 15.01 | 0.39 | 0.02 |
| Mercer | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Howard | -12.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miami FL | 11.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| South Florida | 16.82 | 0.75 | 0.01 |
| SF Austin | 14.77 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| UNLV | 9.48 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Dayton | 13.91 | 0.17 | 0.01 |
| UT Arlington | 3.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Creighton | 18.33 | 0.49 | 0.11 |
| Illinois St | 3.86 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| SUNY Albany | -3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Belmont | 13.41 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| Buffalo | 11.13 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Villanova | 9.24 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| American Univ | -5.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| South Dakota | 17.21 | 0.32 | 0.05 |
| Hawaii | -2.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Yes, the 1 seeds are almost certain to make it through unscathed in the first weekend. The following table goes into the later rounds to show the probabilities of each team making a deep run and eventually winning the championship.
| Team | E8 | F4 | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| NC State | 0.82 | 0.66 | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| Stanford | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| Louisville | 0.52 | 0.35 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| North Carolina | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Texas | 0.58 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Connecticut | 0.68 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Iowa St | 0.49 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Baylor | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| BYU | 0.28 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Oregon | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Iowa | 0.36 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Tennessee | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Michigan | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Arizona | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Maryland | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Indiana | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Notre Dame | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| LSU | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Oklahoma | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Nebraska | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kansas St | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georgia | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Utah | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georgia Tech | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arkansas | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Virginia Tech | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mississippi | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ohio St | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonzaga | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| FL Gulf Coast | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kansas | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Colorado | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montana St | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Delaware | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florida St | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jackson St | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fairfield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mt St Mary's | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Washington St | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Massachusetts | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| IUPUI | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kentucky | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Princeton | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charlotte | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| UCF | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florida | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mercer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Howard | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miami FL | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| South Florida | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SF Austin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| UNLV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dayton | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| UT Arlington | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Creighton | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Illinois St | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SUNY Albany | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Belmont | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Buffalo | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Villanova | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| American Univ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| South Dakota | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hawaii | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Women’s college basketball tends to see fewer tournament upsets than on the Men’s side. However, this disparity usually manifests in the top few teams being a significant notch above the tier 2 teams. As proof of this fact, a 1 seed wins the Women’s tournament in nearly 88% of our simulations. On the Men’s side, this number was below 50%. Even crazier, the top 3 teams on the Women’s side win 84% of the time.
Leading the way is South Carolina who wins 43% of the time. Next in line are NC State and Stanford each with about a 20% chance of winning the Women’s March Madness Title. Louisville is the next best team after a huge gap with about a 3.5% chance of winning.
In a fairly shocking turn of events, the team with the 5th best odds is 5th seeded North Carolina, ahead of every team seeded 2nd-4th. I would expect them to make a deep run. Lastly, I would not count out UConn, especially with the return of last year’s player of the year Paige Bueckers. Unfortunately, I can’t feed this info into my model to see what the odds should be, so it will just be something to keep in mind.
Women’s March Madness Odds: 12+ Seeds
On average, teams seeded 12 or higher win about 0.85 games in each of my simulations of the 2022 Women’s NCAA tournament. Moreover, at least one of these teams advanced past the first round in about 63% of our simulations. Almost all of this probability is due to Florida Gulf Coast. For a 12 seed, this team is extremely good. They have about a 41% chance of winning in the first round over Virginia Tech. Two other twelve seeds, UMass and Belmont each have an 8-9% chance of winning in the first round, but otherwise I wouldn’t expect anyone from this group to win (even though I’m pulling for IUPUI hard).
Women’s March Madness Odds: 11 Seeds
The 11 seeds are fun. In 82% of our simulations, at least one of the 11 seeds advanced. 82% is pretty huge. The average number of wins by all the 11 seeds combined is about 1.15. Thus, you should expect between one and two upsets in the 6-11 matchup in this year’s Women’s March Madness. Leading the way is Princeton. Princeton has an astronomical 69% chance at upsetting Kentucky in the first round of the Women’s tournament. That’s right, they’re favored as an 11 seed over their 6 seed opponent. This Princeton team is good.
The winner of Florida State and Montana State advances about 25% of the time while the winner of Dayton and Depaul wins a further 17% of the time. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if two 11 seeds make the Round of 32, but I would be even more surprised if Princeton wasn’t one of them.
Women’s March Madness Odds: 10 Seeds
In the 10-7 matchups, on average the 10 seeds win 1.7 games per simulation. Even better, in nearly 90% of the simulations at least one of the 10 seeds wins. So, picking all of the 7 seeds to advance means you’re almost certainly going to be wrong.
Unlike with the 11 seeds where there was one really good 11 seed, almost all of the 10 seeds stand a puncher’s chance in their matchups. Arkansas-Utah and Creighton-Colorado are both within the margin of error of being 50-50 matchups. Florida beats Central Florida (fun matchup) about 39% of the time while South Dakota beats Ole Miss about 32% of the time. Each and every one of these games could be exciting. One last fun number: in 3% of my simulations, ALL of the 10 seeds upset their 7th-seeded counterparts.
Women’s March Madness Odds: 8-9 Seeds
Unlike on the Men’s side, some of the 8-9 matchups should be quite decisive. For example, Washington State only beats the “underdog” Kansas State in 19% of our simulations. Close behind, Miami (FL) only beats South Florida in about 25% of model runs. Side note: I just noticed there are two intra-Florida matchups in the Women’s bracket. This just adds to my long list of evidence that the selection committee sniffs out more interesting first and second round matchups in order to deliver the most news-worth product.
Because of the extremely high quality of the 1 seeds in the Women’s bracket, the 8-9 seeds very rarely make the Sweet 16. The team in this range with the best chance is Nebraska, clocking in at just 17% to win 2 games.
Summary
The following teams are my picks for upsets in the Women’s March Madness tournament
- Princeton over Kentucky
- Arkansas over Utah
- Creighton over Colorado
When you are picking your favorites, you should stick with one of the following three teams:
- South Carolina (43%)
- Stanford (20%)
- NC State (20%)
