Alvin Kamara Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Alvin Kamara Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Looking back at his career stats, Alvin Kamara has been the same guy for six years now. He’ll rush for 800 or so yards and catch 80-100 passes. Last year only looks different because he didn’t play the entire season. Even just 2 years ago he finished as the RB9 on similar efficiency. This has earned him a 7/10 pedigree score.
Alvin Kamara has tallied a pretty bad looking 2/10 trend score. A lot of that is due to touchdown regression, he only got to the endzone four times last year. His efficiency was pretty close to his standard last year, too. His fumbles were also way up. I think the 2/10 trend score reflects partially some decreased performance but also bad touchdown luck.
Alvin Kamara was middle of the pack in consistency. He played roughly 3/4ths of the season, but dominated the backfield when he was playing. Moreover, his game-to-game performance was reasonably consistent.
Alvin Kamara gets a 5/10 in the consensus expert ranking category. A lot of this is due to a strong negative trend from his 7/10 level pedigree. Maybe more of this is due to his suspension wherein he will miss three games this year. The experts have Kamara as a low RB2 but he certainly has the potential to do much better.
Alvin Kamara Stats Analysis
There is still a chance that last year’s down performance was more due to touchdown regression than anything else. I wouldn’t expect Kamara to return to his peak 2020 level, but a small resurgence isn’t out of the question.
I expect Jamaal Williams to fill the same role he did in Detroit. This shouldn’t worry Kamara owners at all, though. He has always thrived with a second complementary back around.
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