Chris Olave Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Chris Olave Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Chris Olave had a really great rookie season, eclipsing 1,000 yards. Even more impressive was that he did it with pretty questionable quarterback play all season. I expect more of the same from Olave this year, especially with the uograde to the always reliable Derek Carr.
Let’s start with pedigree. Chris Olave has a really strong 8.5/10 pedigree score. This is a combination of a really strong top 24 finish in his rookie season and having significant draft capital (Chris Olave was drafted 11th overall two drafts ago). This score indicates someone who has performed well in the past and so should be expected to do so again.
Chris Olave also has an 8.5/10 expert consensus ranking score. This means that he is being drafted as a high end WR2, somewhere around the 13-16 range usually. But the story is far from over here. Olave’s other two stats paint a very interesting picture.
Let’s start with the consistency score for Chris Olave. Chris Olave put up 7 points or fewer NINE times last year in standard scoring! He also had a few boom games that inflated his season long average. But what really hurt him was his playing time. He missed two whole games and got pretty limited looks to start the season. This is common for a rookie, but shows up as a 1/10 consistency rating.
The worse stat for Olave fans is his trend score. A 0.5/10 trend score means he was in the bottom 5% of trends for fantasy relevant players. Last year Olave had a stretch of four games from weeks 3-7 where he put up 10.5+ in standard scoring. Four straight weeks of great performance.
After week 7, he only got back over 10.5 one more time. Most of his performances were 40-60 yards and no touchdowns. This is a pretty negative trend but hopefully it is a result of touchdown variance rather than overperformance early in the season.
Chris Olave Stats Analysis
Chris Olave was one of two rookies last year to have a really promising breakout campaign, Garrett Wislon being the other. Interestingly, Wilson and Olave have nearly indistinguishable stats and draft pedigree but Olave is going solidly later than Wilson.
The only explanation for this is Aaron Rodgers signing with the Jets. However, there remains a lot to be seen about how things will turn out in NY. Myself, I might take the cheaper Olave instead because Derek Carr is no slouch.
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