NBA 2021 Playoffs Preview: Play-In Tournament
It’s the best time of the year – the 2021 NBA playoffs are upon us. In a normal year, the first round of the playoffs is often drama-less. However, starting last year the NBA league office figured out a way to inject tension and excitement into the early days of the playoffs: the play-in tournament! Normally, the play-in tournament features middling teams fighting tooth and nail for the chance to loose easily to the best teams in the NBA.
What do the numbers say though? Which of the 4 teams in each conference are most likely to get the 7 seed? How likely is it that the Lakers miss the playoffs entirely? We’ll take a quick look at Tuesday and Wednesday’s play-in games and get you prepared for what to expect coming up. After the play-in games are finished, check back again for another playoffs preview before the first round begins
The Storylines
The headlines are already writing themselves out West. The 7-8 matchup is none other than Lebron James’ defending champion Lakers against Steph Curry’s injury-hobbled Warriors. The history of Lebron and Steph and the drama of the defending champions up against the wall makes for a can’t-miss game Wednesday night. One has to think that the Lakers have a very good chance of cleaning up and Lebron advancing to face fellow Banana-boater Chris Paul in the first round. But Steph Curry is the reigning scoring champion, is about 3 years younger, and has eliminated Lebron three times in the playoffs since 2015.
The down-ticket bout out West is also very exciting if you like watching good players. The headliners here are the young point God of the future Ja Morant versus the older, former-Raptor DeMar DeRozan. While Memphis is almost certainly the better team, it is hard to root against Greg Poppovich in the playoffs.
In the 7/8 matchup in the East, we are treated to the limping Celtics taking on the surging Wizards. The Celtics fans are sure to be worried going into this matchup without their star Jaylen Brown (who was my early season pick for most improved player…he made the all-too-difficult jump from good to great) who will miss the playoffs with a broken wrist. The Wizards faithful, on the other hand, have a lot to be happy about. Bradley Beal almost won the scoring title but somehow was talked about less than fellow star Russel Westbrook who averaged a triple double for the fourth time in five years. This game is going to be great.
While I don’t have a ton to say about the Pacers/Hornets matchup on Tuesday, it will certainly be worth tuning in for just to see nearly-guaranteed rookie of the year LaMelo Ball make his first playoff appearance.
Odds of Advancing and Missing the Playoffs
Now I can return to my strength: statistics and probabilities. Using my Bayes Ensemble rankings, I simulated the entire play-in tournament to determine the odds that each team is the 7 seed, the 8 seed, or misses the first round entirely. I simulated the play-in tournament 100k times to estimate the probabilities of each team achieving a certain result. I’ll go through each team’s numbers quickly here.
The Los Angeles Lakers are by-far the best team in the play-in tournament. They are the second betting favorite to win the entire title right now. My system gives them a 73% chance of beating the Warriors and securing the 7 seed. Even if they lose to the Warriors, my model thinks the Lakers have an additional 19% chance of being the 8 seed. This leaves only about 7-8% chance that the Lakers are eliminated before the first round.
Consequently the Golden State Warriors have a 27% chance of beating the Lakers and ending up the 7 seed to play the Phoenix Suns. If they lose, the Warriors have a 35% chance of ending up the eight seed and having the chance to annoy the Jazz in the first round. The leftovers, unfortunately for the Warriors the most likely outcome, is a 38% chance of the Warriors missing the first round.
While neither the Memphis Grizzlies nor the San Antonio Spurs have a chance at the 7 seed, if either of them can manage to win 2 straight games they will secure the 8 seed. My model thinks that Memphis is fairly heavily favored, winning against the spurs about 68% of the time. Unfortunately for both these teams, they’ll have either Lebron James and Anthony Davis or Steph Curry waiting for them. The end result is that the Grizzlies have about a 31% chance of being the 8 seed while the Spurs have only a 14% chance of making the first round at all.
Back in the East, my model thinks the big dog in the play-in is still Boston. However, over the last few weeks Boston’s chances have begun to nose-dive. In fact, the model says the Boston Celtics only manage to bet the Wizards to acquire the 7 seed 53% of the time. In the case that they lose to Washington, the Celtics still sneak in with the 8 seed an additional 31% of the time. This means that Boston only misses the first round altogether about 16% of the time.
The most fun team in the East play-in, the Washington Wizards secures the 7 seed by beating Boston about 47% of the time. Luckily the Wizards are still fairly heavily favored against either the Pacers or the Hornets so that they secure the 8 seed an additional 34% of the time. The remaining 19% of the time, the Wizards fun season comes to an end and they miss the playoffs.
Again, both the Indiana Pacers and the Charlotte Hornets must win two straight games to get the 8 seed. My model actually prefers the Hornets here with the Hornets winning the matchup 57% of the time. However, because they have to win two straight, the Hornets get the 8 seed only 19% of the time and the Pacers get the 8 only 14% of the time.
Looking Forward to a First Round Playoffs Preview
After the play-in tournament concludes and every few days throughout the playoffs, I will give updates and predictions from my model on each team’s chances to advance and win the championship. After the play-in tournament, I’ll crank-up and run the model again to give a full playoffs preview with everyone involved. So, stay-tuned and check back frequently to see how the probabilities are changing over time!
