BALTIMORE BACK ON TOP, Week 15 NFL Power Rankings and Predictions
Last week, our 2024 NFL model correctly predicted 10 of the 13 games. So far on the season, it is the eighth of over 50 models tracked here and has predicted over 70% of games correctly in the 2024 NFL season. The table below contains our week 15 predictions:
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Predicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | LAR | 3.9 |
| 15 | JAX | NYJ | -1.6 |
| 15 | CAR | DAL | 3.4 |
| 15 | NO | WAS | -5.3 |
| 15 | NYG | BAL | -14.6 |
| 15 | CLE | KC | -3.8 |
| 15 | TEN | CIN | -2.8 |
| 15 | HOU | MIA | 2.8 |
| 15 | PHI | PIT | 6.3 |
| 15 | DEN | IND | 4.6 |
| 15 | LAC | TB | 5.1 |
| 15 | DET | BUF | 4.0 |
| 15 | ARI | NE | 8.1 |
| 15 | SEA | GB | -1.1 |
| 15 | MIN | CHI | 7.9 |
| 15 | LV | ATL | -2.2 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
Below is a graphic showing our power rankings as of week 15. Spoiler, for the first time in what feels like forever, there is a new team on top.
Baltimore is now on top in our power rankings, finally surpassing the Lions who have dominated for roughly half the season. Buffalo and Philly have been near the top for a while now. Kansas City has climbed into the top 5 after a bumpy midseason. Miami has also risen a bunch since Tua’s return, cracking the top 10 this week.
Also interesting, though not for Super Bowl implications, is that Carolina has finally climbed out of the doghouse. This is paired nicely with Bryce Young looking lightyears better after his midseason benching. Speaking of young QBs, Denver seems to have peaked around the 15th best team while the Bears continue to plummet in our estimation. Washington is all the way up to 8th. This just goes to show that it can be hard to actually tell which quarterbacks will be a franchise player and which will make you scratch your head for years.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed.
The story this week is that a lot of teams are in the 5-10% win probability range. Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Philly, Houston, Buffalo, and Minnesota all fall here. Only KC, Baltimore, and mighty Detroit see better odds.
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