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Category: Baseball

Posted onMay 18, 2022May 26, 2022Baseball

Modeling Batters Faced Per Inning with 9 Mixed Negative Binomial Distributions

by jdashbrock2 Comments on Modeling Batters Faced Per Inning with 9 Mixed Negative Binomial Distributions

Our follow up article discussing how to model runs per inning by using the batters faced per inning model is live. In studying the statistics…

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Posted onNovember 23, 2021November 23, 2021Baseball

What’s the Point of BABIP?

by jdashbrock1 Comment on What’s the Point of BABIP?

BABIP – batting average on balls in play – is very different from many of the sports stats you’re used to seeing. Instead of trying…

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Posted onNovember 16, 2021November 16, 2021Baseball

Baseball Alphabet Soup: What is wRAA and What is wOBA?

by jdashbrock1 Comment on Baseball Alphabet Soup: What is wRAA and What is wOBA?

50 years ago, baseball got mathematical when Bill James started the Society for American Baseball Research and the sabermetrics revolution began. 15 years ago, Tom…

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Posted onOctober 14, 2021October 14, 2021Baseball

MLB 2021 ALCS ODDS, NLCS ODDS, and WORLD SERIES ODDS

by jdashbrock

Last week we prepared everyone for the 2021 MLB divisional round but now it is time to present our 2021 ALCS odds and NLCS odds.…

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Posted onOctober 7, 2021October 7, 2021Baseball

MLB 2021 Divisional Round Odds and Championship Probabilities

by jdashbrock1 Comment on MLB 2021 Divisional Round Odds and Championship Probabilities

The baseball playoffs are finally here which, to me, means model time! I’ve spent the last week or two developing a model to compute the…

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Posted onJanuary 19, 2021February 15, 2021Baseball

Solving Baseball Arbitration: Game Theory and a Statistical Model

by jdashbrock4 Comments on Solving Baseball Arbitration: Game Theory and a Statistical Model

In Major League Baseball, arbitration is a process used to determine the salary of young players that are still under team control. Most simply, the…

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Posted onSeptember 24, 2020September 25, 2020Baseball

National League Playoff Scenarios: Sep 24 2020

by jdashbrock3 Comments on National League Playoff Scenarios: Sep 24 2020

The National League playoff race is especially close this year. Currently, there are six teams fighting for four spots. The playoff scenarios this year are…

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Posted onSeptember 14, 2020May 18, 2022Baseball

Mathematical Modeling Tutorial: The TDJ Baseball Model (Part 1)

by jdashbrock

Check out this updated content in which we describe how to model the number of batters faced per inning using a mixture of negative binomial…

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Posted onJuly 27, 2020July 27, 2020Baseball

Three Effects of a Shortened Baseball Season

by jdashbrock

More than any other sport, baseball is a game of probabilities. Players go on hot streaks, cold streaks, and everything in between. Over the course…

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Posted onJuly 24, 2020July 25, 2020Baseball

[Quick Hit] Will Someone Hit .400 this Year?

by jdashbrock2 Comments on [Quick Hit] Will Someone Hit .400 this Year?

Probably not. There is chatter about how this year’s stats are going to look crazy when taken out of context due to the shortened season.…

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