Deebo Samuel Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Deebo Samuel Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Deebo Samuel is a very polarizing figure this year. On one hand, his 2021 season waa electric and he was one of the best fantasy players there was. On the other, he also has one of the lowest trend scores of anyone we looked at.
His 2021 season would have been the best fantasy season of receivers if not for Cooper Kupp’s all time great season. It had been a long time since we’ve seen a player be used so heavily in so many different ways. This WR2 finish and a reasonably strong performance last year lead to a 9/10 pedigree score, elite territory.
It is the trend score for Deebo Samuel we should be worried about. A 1/10 trend score is pretty appalling. From 2021 to 2022 Deebo’s production dropped by 40-50%. Most of this is a huge touchdown regression, going from 14 to 5. I think the reality for him is somewhere in between.
A good spot for Deebo is his consistency. Deebo Samuel was reasonably healthy over the last two years. Over that time frame, he was always able to put up solid numbers, too. This is because Shanahan loves the guy and designs plays specifically to get the ball into his hands. This leads to a guy with a pretty good floor week to week.
The expert consensus score for Deebo Samuel is an 8/10. I think experts are a bit higher on Deebo than ADP and this probably represents some of the uncertainty in his role going forward. He does stand to be a very high reward player, though, if we can egt closer to 2021 form at his current price tag.
Deebo Samuel Stats Analysis
I have no idea how to rate Deebo Samuel. I think it is unlikely he returns to his 2021 form. But I do think it is likely he does better than last year. McCaffrey will probably take away most of the rushing work. But there is a chance Samuel takes receiving work away from the rest of the team.
The question is whether there is enough receiving work for Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle. It is a very crowded room.
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