Diontae Johnson Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Diontae Johnson Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Diontae Johnson was poised to be one of the best long-term wide receiver values in the NFL early in his career. He got better in each of his first 3 years, hitting WR12 in 2021. Then he had a pretty big regression last year.
In 2021 Diontae Johnson finished a very healthy WR12. In 2022 he fell all the way back to WR46. It feels likely that most of this regression is due to the rookie quarterback coming in and taking the helm. But is all of it due to that? And does that mean the negative trend will continue? This resulted in Diontae Johnson getting a terrible 1.5/10 trend score.
However, because of Diontae Johnson’s WR12 finish in 2021, he has a pretty good pedigree. His pedigree score is a 6/10. So, even with being totally unstartable last year, his pedigree score indicates that he should be expected to be a good player all else held equal.
On the other hand, Diontae Johnson was extraordinarily consistent. From a points-scored perspective, Diontae Johnson was consistent in that he never had a huge game last year. Not once. He consistently put up roughly 50-60 yards a week on 5-6 catches, nothing more or less.
He also got a boost to his consistency score from a huge snap percentage. He missed no games in the last 2 years. In those two years he saw the field on a vast majority of offensive snaps. This means he has tons of opportunities, he just needs to do something with them.
Diontae Johnson has earned a 5/10 expert consensus ranking. He stands as a very interesting prospect this year. His stats and past performance indicate he can produce at a very, very high level. His consistency is great, he just had a pretty bad year last year with Pickett. If Pickett makes a leap, Diontae Johnson is a huge value at his current ADP.
Diontae Johnson Stats Analysis
Diontae Johnson’s performance last year is probably a mix of bad luck re: touchdown regression but also poorer QB play than he is used to. In his four years he has had 5,7,8, and 0 touchdowns. There is a clear outlier here.
However, the fact that the 0 TD year corresponded with Pickett’s first year may also indicate that Diontae Johnson should be expected to score fewer TDs with Pickett at the helm. So while I wouldn’t expect a regression back up to 7-8, I would expect 4-5 touchdowns.
The question is whether or not 4-5 touchdowns makes Diontae Johnson worth drafting at his current price. He needs a big step forward from Pickett. This should also help Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth as the offense, together, takes a step forward.
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