Garrett Wilson Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Garrett Wilson Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Let’s start by addressing the elephant in Garrett Wilson’s room. His 1/10 trend score indicates that he has been one of the least consistent players in the league. This is a product of him having a high variance in his game-to-game performance last year along with his inconsistent snap percentage.
However, if you look at the trend of his snap percentage as the year went on, it steadily increased to nearly 100%. This means that the consistency rating is a bit of an overstatement and he is probably more consistent than the 1/10 suggests, but not by much.
Garrett Wilson’s pedigree score is very impressive. You might think a WR21 finish wouldn’t lead to a high pedigree score, but for sophomores we still look at their draft pedigree. And, for a guy drafted in the top 10 of the first round and who had a strong rookie season, this leads to a strong pedigree score.
Garrett Wilson’s other four factor category, trend, is also pretty disappointing. Ideally for a young player, you want to see a trend score well above indicating improvement throughout the year. However, Garrett Wilson did not really improve over the course of the year, earning him his below average trend score.
Garrett Wilson Stats Analysis
To me, Garrett Wilson’s four factors analysis is a bit concerning. Whenever the consensus score is above the pedigree score, I look first at the trend. If the trend is very large, it means the player came on very strong late in the season so people are banking on this upwards trajectory.
We don’t see this for Garrett Wilson. Even worse, he proved very inconsistent last year.
The reason Garrett Wilson has earned such a high consensus score when the stats don’t back it up is Aaron Rodgers, plain and simple. Rodgers has supported elite receivers in the past. However, he has also shown favoritism for “his guys” in the past too. We’ll see what happens, but I would be a little skeptical of the draft capital involved to acquire Wilson.
Fantasy Football Four Factors Explained
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