Kyle Pitts Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Kyle Pitts Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
If we did this analysis for Kyle Pitts last year or the year before, his pedigree score would be through the roof. First of all, Pitts was drafted 4th overall, the highest ever pick for a tight end in the history of the NFL. Then, though TE is a slow developing season, he caught for 1,000 yards his rookie year.
The problem, though, was two things. First, in his rookie season he only caught one touchdown. This really, really hurt his fantasy production. Second, his sophomore campaign was pretty abysmal. He was hurt and only played 10 games. Worse, in those 10 games he averaged only about 35 yards compared to closer to 65 the year before.
These two mitigating factors combine to give Kyle Pitts only a 3.5/10 pedigree score. Most people still think he is a really good player though, which you can see by looking at his expert consensus ranking. His expert consensus ranking is a 6.5/10. This is equivalent to roughly the 5th best tight end in the NFL this year.
Kyle Pitts has a fairly low consistency score of 3/10. This is a product of a few things. First he missed nearly half the season last year. Second, when your performance is so poor a touchdown can double or triple your normal weekly output. This leads to high variance in outcome for Kyle Pitts.
Finally, Kyle Pitts trend score is going precisely the wrong direction; Most tight ends hope to be hitting their stride around the end of their second year. Kyle Pitts has had a slow downward trajectory ever since he hit the NFL. This equates to a 2/10 trend score for Kyle Pitts.
Kyle Pitts Stats Analysis
There are a few things to monitor with Kyle Pitts. First, his injury seems to be lingering even up to a few weeks ago. While he is practicing now in early August it is hard not to wonder if he won’t be 100%.
The other consideration is that the Falcons offense is very interesting this year. The last three drafts, the Falcons have invested early draft capital in potentially elite talent. That started with Kyle Pitts. Last year they spent an early first on Drake London who had a great season. This year the spent an early first on Bijan Robinson, one of the best running back prospects in years.
If Kyle Pitts, the highest drafted TE ever, can’t succeed when surrounded by one of the best RB prospects in a long time and a stud sophomore receiver, then he never will.
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