Tyler Lockett Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Tyler Lockett Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Few players have been as quietly productive over the last 5 years as Tyler Lockett. In that timeframe, he has missed only 2 games. He has averaged over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. For most of that time he has been the second best receiver on the team. And for that whole time he has been a great value draft pick.
This continued, prolonged success has turned into a really high pedigree score for Tyler Lockett. His 8.5/10 is borderline WR1 teritory and why not? He finished WR13 last year. The fact that he does this year in, year out is the reason for such a high score.
The fact that he does this year in, year out is also the reason for his 8/10 consistency score. As I mentioned in the intro paragraph, Lockett rarely misses time. He only missed 2 games over the last two seasons. And because he scores a lot of TDs (the 4th most of WRs last year!), his weekly production is pretty consistent.
Even Tyler Lockett’s trend score is essentially a wash. If you look at his data over the last few years, he has had nearly the exact same stat line. 1000-1100 yards and 8-10 touchdowns, give or take literally nothing. The 4.5/10 trend score is basically a 5, indicating his performance has neither gotten better nor worse over the last two years.
Even though his trend score is flat and his situation hasn’t changed much, Tyler Lockett has a distinctly lower consensus score of 8.5/10 than his pedigree would suggest. Perhaps this reflects the uncertainty around Geno Smith. And that is a fair point. But that large of a difference is pretty significant. This might indicate Tyler Lockett is being undervalued this year – as always.
Tyler Lockett Stats Analysis
Another mitigating factor for why Lockett might be getting drafted later is the presence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks spent draft capital on a potential stud receiver this year. They might have done this because they think Tyler Lockett is on the decline.
On the other hand, they might have done this because he was the best player ont he board and it might say nothing about Lockett at all. The other question is whether JSN will take targets from Lockett. He might. But I would rather bet on the guy who has been a lock for 1100 and 8TDs than on an unproven rookie.
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