[Quick Hit] How Often Do Players Average Their Age?
In the last year of writing for this blog, I’ve largely tackled ethereal, inconsequential questions including ‘Who are the best teams in the NBA/NCAAM?’, ‘Who are the best fantasy football defenses?’ and ‘How much is home court advantage worth?’ Now, though, it feels time for a leap of faith and to study a truly impactful question. I ask: How often do NBA players average their age? I’m talking about a 19 year old averaging 19 points per game, a 30 year old averaging 30.
Understanding this question and studying the answer will undoubtedly lead to insights league-wide. Off the top of my head, I can see the conclusions of this article driving insights in each and every front office and may even impact draft picks including this year’s MVP race – make sure to read to the end.
Thank you to my friend Steven for the germ of the idea that blossomed into this article. So, as to not delay any longer, join as we dive deep (DEEP!) and try to figure out what is really going on with players averaging their ages.
What does it mean to average their age?
In a word, dominance. No matter the age, scoring your age is impressive. If a 20 year old rookie averages 20, they had a great season. If anyone averages 31, they had a really great season.
Below is a plot of Age v. ‘How cool it is if someone averages that amount’. The x-axis is in units of years and the y-axis is in units of Fonzies (a standardized measure of coolness).
To build suspense, I’ll leave you with these two facts:
- The youngest player to average their age was 19
- The oldest player to average their age was 31
How Often Do Players Average Their Age?
I painstakingly opened the career statistics for every player in the basketball-reference.com database and went through each season in their careers and asked myself the key question: ‘Did this player average their age at any point?’ If they did, I smiled and noted that fact as I populated a 59,000 cell excel document by hand with this information. If they didn’t, I immediately cast that person from my mind as they no longer were interesting to me.
After going through each of the 29,635 seasons accumulated by NBA players, I determined how many seasons satisfied the condition ‘Age == PPG’. The answer?
.
.
.
.
102 times.
After rounding points per game to the nearest whole number, one hundred and two times a player averaged the same number of points as their age. You may ask yourself (Well…how did I get here?) if rounding points to the nearest whole number counts as averaging your age. And all I can say is that that is a phenomenal question. It would be nothing short of a dereliction of duty for me to lie and say that averaging 28.4 points at age 28 is nearly as cool as averaging 28.0 at age 28.
So, how many players averaged exactly their age? Significantly fewer: 10 of them.
The Complete List of Players to Average their Age
Here is the moment of truth, the complete list of which players averaged their age. Let’s not waste any more time:
- 19: Moses Malone
- 20: Elton Brand, Kobe, Tyreke Evans, Cliff Robinson
- 21: Tim Duncan, Spencer Haywood, Kyie, Stephon Marbury, Derrick Rose, Collin Sexton, Amar’e
- 22: Bill Cartwright, John Collins, Adrian Dantley, Tim Duncan, Eric Gordon, Juwan Howard, Kyrie, Iverson, Warren Jabali, Bernard King, Marbury, Drik, Glenn Robinson, Kelly Tripucka, Russell Westbrook
- 23: Barkley, Beal, Boogie, John Drew, Tim Duncan, Embiid, Garnett, Alex Groza, Ron Harper, Warren Jabali, Pistol Pete, Jamal Mashburn, Xavier McDaniel, Dirk, CP3, D’Angelo Russell, Ralph Simpson
- 24: Jaylen Brown, Joe Barry Carroll, Boogie, Mel Daniels, Walter David, Blake Griffin, Spencer Haywood, Bailey Howell, Neil Johnston, Bob Lanier, Kevin Martin, David Robinson, Bob Rule, Derek Smith, David Thompson
- 25: Walt Bellamy, Otis Birdsong, Vince Carter, Billy Cunningham, Travis Grant, Lou Hudson, Joe Johnson, Damian Lillard, Kevin Martin, Bob Pettit, Bob Rule, Charlie Scott, Amar’e, Karl-Anthony Towns, Metta World Peace
- 26: Melo, Tiny Archibald, Billy Cunningham, Anthony Davis, Bob McAdoo, Dirk, Shaq, David Thompson
- 27: Dave Bing, DeRozan, Kyrie, Lebron (easiest one to guess by far), Kawhi, Dame, Bob McAdoo, Dirk, Michael Redd, Chris Webber
- 28: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Vince Carter, Dale Ellis, Paul George, Karl Malone, Bob Pettit
- 29: Oscar Robertson
- 30: Adrian Dantley
- 31: Iverson, Jerry West
Wow. There it is. I think Jordan’s absence from this prestigious list is fairly damning and hurts his GOAT credentials. Is anybody actually surprised that Lebron shows up on this list precisely once for his age 27 season. Now, let me present the substantially more impactful list of the subset of players who have averaged exactly their age:
- 22: Iverson
- 23: Barkley, Xavier McDaniel
- 24: Mel Daniels, Bob Rule, David Thompson
- 25: Joe Johnson
- 27: Dave Bing
- 28: Paul George, Karl Malone
Final Thoughts
Nothing shows career improvement more than a player being on this list more than once. Think about it: if you’re on this list more than once, it means that as you get older you’re scoring more points. Talk about growth. No player shows up on this list more than Dirk Nowitzki. Does that mean he is the best player in history? I’ll leave that one up to you.
I urge each and every one of you to consider stats of this form when analyzing which players should be on all-star teams, all NBA teams, and in GOAT considerations. When we turn our attention to this year’s MVP race, we’ll see just how important this statistic is.
Ask yourself the following question: Who are this year’s MVP favorites? It’s Lebron, Embiid, and Jokic. Now ask yourself if any of them average their age. LeBron is decidedly not averaging 36 this year and his MVP chances are pretty much gone. Embiid is averaging 30 at 27, that’s not even kind of close. No MVP for him. You know who is averaging their age currently? MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic.
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