Check Out Our 2024 NFL Model!
Click here to go to our landing page for the 2024 NFL Model.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve been building out our 2024 NFL Model. We compute power rankings as well as overall team ratings to help predict spreads and game outcomes. We also compute super bowl odds using Monte Carlo simulation and our team ratings model. In addition to the graphics like the ones shown below, we also break the playoffs down even further. How likely is it that a team wins their conference? That they advance past the wildcard round? That they make the playoffs at all? Our 2024 NFL model contains it all!
Our model uses Implied Vegas Ratings to determine how good teams are. By combining spreads across multiple weeks and using the transitive property we can figure out the relative quality of all the teams. For example, Kansas City was favored against Baltimore by 3.5 and against Cincinnati by 5.5, both home games in weeks 1 and 2 respectively. This means that Baltimore was 2 points better than Cincinnati. Even though we have no data comparing the Ravens and the Bengals directly, the two Vegas spreads imply a relative quality between the two teams who have never faced off!
The result is that we can create accurate, stable, projections which react rapidly to new information. This lets us create charts like the one below
These images tell the story of the season. Green Bay lost their quarterback week 1 and dropped from 16th to 31st in our rankings. Minnesota is proving quite competent with Sam Darnold leading the way, they jumped from the low 20s to around 16th! Cincinnati had a scare week 1 but in week 2 proved they were who they thought they were; their rankings zig zagged from 6th to 9th to 5th in response.
Please check the 2024 NFL model landing page frequently as it is updated weekly after the Monday Night games are completed.
