Lions Leap to The Front! NFL 2024 Week 9 Power Rankings and Predictions
Last week, our 2024 NFL model performed about average , correctly predicting 10 of 16 games. So far on the season, it is the sixth most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and was middle of the pack in accuracy last week. The table below contains our week 9 predictions.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Precicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | NYJ | HOU | 2.5 |
| 9 | ATL | DAL | 3.1 |
| 9 | BAL | DEN | 10.8 |
| 9 | BUF | MIA | 6.8 |
| 9 | CAR | NO | -4.6 |
| 9 | TEN | NE | 5.5 |
| 9 | CIN | LV | 8.8 |
| 9 | CLE | LAC | -2.9 |
| 9 | NYG | WAS | -0.7 |
| 9 | ARI | CHI | 1.7 |
| 9 | PHI | JAX | 7.7 |
| 9 | GB | DET | -1.2 |
| 9 | SEA | LAR | 0.7 |
| 9 | MIN | IND | 7.4 |
| 9 | KC | TB | 9.8 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
On the heels of a huge win, the Lions leapt to the top of our power rankings. Baltimore rebounded to fourth as a data quirk punished them a bit in week 8. Minnesota continues their relentless climb, all the way up to our third ranked team this week. Other noteworthy climbers include the Rams and the Eagles, who had a convincing win at a struggling Cincinnati.
The most noteworthy drop in our rankings is Seattle. Their neon green line took a nosedive between week 8 and week 9 after a significant loss against Buffalo. Interestingly, the Vegas data and models seem to continue to sour on Pittsburgh despite their continued success. Perhaps the books see a signal that I don’t, but this one surprised me. The entire rankings history can be found in the chart below.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed.
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