Listen to the Lion: 2024 NFL Week 10 Picks
Last week, our 2024 NFL model performed fourth best according to our online prediction tracker, correctly predicting 13 of 15 games. So far on the season, it is the sixth most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and was middle of the pack in accuracy last week. The table below contains our week 10 predictions.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Precicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | BAL | CIN | 6.3 |
| 10 | CAR | NYG | -4.3 |
| 10 | NO | ATL | -1.2 |
| 10 | IND | BUF | -1.5 |
| 10 | KC | DEN | 9.4 |
| 10 | JAX | MIN | -5.2 |
| 10 | CHI | NE | 8.3 |
| 10 | WAS | PIT | 2.9 |
| 10 | TB | SF | -4.0 |
| 10 | LAC | TEN | 7.5 |
| 10 | ARI | NYJ | -0.6 |
| 10 | DAL | PHI | -3.2 |
| 10 | HOU | DET | -1.7 |
| 10 | LAR | MIA | 2.9 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
The top two teams in our power rankings this week are both from the NFC north. Detroit leads again, and this isn’t terribly surprising as even the media has them as one of the main contenders. What is surprising is the Vikings in 2nd place in our rankings. Minnesota has been climbing, climbing, climbing all season and now have reached what might be their peak at #2. Following behind is Baltimore and Buffalo who have been in and out of the top few spots all season. Its a good year to be blue and purple.
What surprised me the most this week was the freefall of the Chiefs and 49ers. Thought to be Super Bowl favorites to start the season, these teams might not even be favorites to win their conference come January. The worst teams in the league are fairly stable. Carolina has been at the bottom for a while. Cleveland, New England, Las Vegas, and the Giants also have lived at the bottom all year. Creeping closer to the bottom of the barrel is the Cowboys who lost QB Dak Prescott this week and didn’t even look very good when he was healthy. Bad time to be a cowboy.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed. The Lions are continuing to grab a bigger and bigger share of the pie as things start to come into focus.
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