New Team on Top: 2024 Week 7 NFL Model
Last week, our 2024 NFL model performed exceptionally well, correctly predicting 12 of 14 games. So far on the season, it is the third most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and was ninth most accurate last week. The table below contains our week 7 predictions.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Precicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NO | DEN | 4.5 |
| 7 | JAX | NE | 6.2 |
| 7 | CLE | CIN | -3.6 |
| 7 | MIN | DET | 2.3 |
| 7 | GB | HOU | 3.6 |
| 7 | IND | MIA | 5.0 |
| 7 | BUF | TEN | 11.6 |
| 7 | NYG | PHI | -2.7 |
| 7 | ATL | SEA | 3.9 |
| 7 | WAS | CAR | 8.5 |
| 7 | LAR | LV | 6.8 |
| 7 | SF | KC | 2.4 |
| 7 | PIT | NYJ | -0.3 |
| 7 | TB | BAL | -1.6 |
| 7 | ARI | LAC | 0.1 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
For the first six weeks, either KC or SF was on top of our rankings. This week, BALTIMORE takes the top spot as they continue to have strong showings on their way to a deep playoff push.
Other risers include Minnesota (whose sustained success can no longer be ignored), the Packers (with Jordan Love back), and the Jets (who signed star receiver Davante Adams). The biggest faller was the Eagles, dropping from second to eleventh after a very poor performance against Cleveland. The graphic below shows the entire power rankings and how they’ve changed over the last five weeks.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed.
The biggest change this week is Kansas City losing a lot of ground. Their championship odds have been redistributed between Buffalo, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Detroit. Philadelphia also lost a bit of ground as their overall rating decreased quite a bit.
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