Bills in Front in Our NFL Week 8 2024 Model
Last week, our 2024 NFL model performed about average , correctly predicting 10 of 15 games. So far on the season, it is the sixth most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and was twenty first most accurate last week. The table below contains our week 8 predictions.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Precicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | LAR | MIN | -2.0 |
| 8 | TB | ATL | 0.3 |
| 8 | HOU | IND | 6.6 |
| 8 | MIA | ARI | 3.4 |
| 8 | JAX | GB | -2.7 |
| 8 | NE | NYJ | -5.4 |
| 8 | DET | TEN | 11.2 |
| 8 | CIN | PHI | 3.0 |
| 8 | CLE | BAL | -8.0 |
| 8 | SEA | BUF | -2.5 |
| 8 | LAC | NO | 8.7 |
| 8 | DEN | CAR | 9.1 |
| 8 | WAS | CHI | 0.2 |
| 8 | LV | KC | -7.4 |
| 8 | SF | DAL | 6.2 |
| 8 | PIT | NYG | 7.5 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
Baltimore’s time on top was short-lived as now BUFFALO takes the top spot (perhaps surprisingly?). Things are close at the top with the top 6 teams within about a point and a half of each other. Also noteworthy is Miami rising back to near the middle of the pack due to Tua’s return after weeks at the bottom.
This week’s biggest faller was Tampa Bay who lost their two elite wide receivers in the course of just a couple of hours. As a symptom of how our model behaves (and really, there isn’t a very good way to handle this without introducing bias), Tampa’s fall dragged Baltimore down a bit with them. Expect Baltimore to bounce back to near the top next week, especially if they beat Cleveland as soundly as we expect. Washington’s plummeting in the rankings is attributable to Jayden Daniels’ potentially missing time, they should bounce back when he comes back and looks like his old self.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed.
The championship odds haven’t changed too much this week, mostly just a slight reshuffling of the allotted probabilities. Buffalo and Detroit gained a bit on the backs of their shooting up in our rating system. Philly continued to lose, Baltimore lost a bit because of the wonky data, and San Fran lost quite a bit after their continued injuries and loss against KC.
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