Impact of Positional Differences on Front Office Decision Making in the NFL
Introduction
NFL fans have lots of opinions about how front offices should handle making decisions. Currently the strongest tropes seem to be about not drafting running backs in the first round and not signing running backs in free agency. Recently, there has been a growing thought that you can only win a Super Bowl with a QB on a rookie contract. I think this mentality is the correct approach, but usually comes up a bit short.
These types of discussions are unique to football because of just how different every position is. Every position provides different amounts of value, but they all share the same contract restrictions. Money that is spent on Quarterback is money that cannot be spent on Defense. Similarly, players rarely switch position as their attributes are so independent. We can’t even compare different position’s stats. There are so many non-linear influences on player value it makes it difficult to prove much through hard numbers. But we can draw some conclusions. I am going to look at one factor, the primes of different positions, and show how we can use this information to make major roster construction decisions.
Front Office Resources
There are two primary resources NFL teams can use to get players: Draft picks and Money. Teams (generally) get 1 pick in each of the 7 rounds of the NFL draft and they can spend up to the Salary Cap in money (~$188 million in 2020). Teams need to decide how to use these resources to acquire each position. Naturally, the positions that are valued more (QB, Pass Rusher, Offensive Tackle) will command more resources than positions that are valued less (K, OG, NT). There are 3 ways to use resources to acquire players: 1) drafting them, 2) trading for them, or 3) signing/resigning them. We are going to look at when positions peak and why certain resources will go further when used on different positions.
Pro Bowls by Age
Teams want to roster players for their best years. We need to identify: on average what are the best years for players at a given position? For this analysis I decided to use Pro Bowls as a proxy for being elite at a position. I collected data from 1970-2019 and looked at the frequency players of different ages made the Pro Bowl. I combined groups of positions together, but only after first confirming separately they followed similar trends.
The most immediate observation should be that Pro Bowl caliber running backs are more frequently young than old. Running Backs are frequently Pro Bowlers at age 23 and are not frequently Pro Bowlers past the age of 30. RB is a young man’s position. Nothing surprising. Quarterback is the next most interesting line showing very little change between ages 25 and 35. This is also not surprising. Young Offensive Lineman (under 25) rarely become Pro Bowlers. They also have the more Pro Bowlers into their mid-30s compared to other non-QB positions. One surprise was how closely the defensive positions aligned. But that is just an interesting aside.
Pro Bowls by Years Experience
Age is valuable but the real metric that matters when considering contract decision making is years in the league. Rookie draft picks sign 4-year deals. 1st round pick contracts come with a team option for a 5th year of team control. Undrafted rookies sign 3-year deals, but then they become restricted FA which generally means if they are good, they will sign the tender tag (as they have very limited leverage) and be with that team for the 4th year as well. Also, teams can franchise tag any of these players giving the team another year of control. The teams have ‘control’ of the player for about 5 years before the player starts gaining negotiation leverage.
Rookie RBs more than any other position become Pro Bowlers. Nearly 10% of Pro Bowl running backs are rookies! 56% of all pro bowl running backs are on their 4-year rookie contract! If you include the 5th year which teams can control at a cost controlled rate, that would encapsulate 69% of pro bowl running back performances. If you want a pro bowl caliber running back, they are acquirable through the draft. Offensive Line is the opposite. Only 20% of Pro Bowl OL performances come in the first 4 years and only 31% occur in the first 5 years. Pro Bowl OL are more frequently on their second contract.
How Should Teams use This?
If you want elite offensive line play, don’t assume your first-round pick will save you. It could take some time. Offensive line is a position that teams should focus on retaining and pursuing aggressively in free agency. They maintain their high-level performance into their 30s better than any other non-QB position.
If you want elite Running backs, then you should be using draft capital drafting early… at least more so than resigning them for big money. Running back rookie contracts are where the majority of pro bowl performances come from. Especially if you are a team ready to compete. Rookie running backs more than any other position can step in and contribute immediately.
Conclusion
These results have implications on many areas of front office decision making. Understanding the general growth/regression trajectory of positions is necessary for team building. Understanding the ways to maximize your resources can give you the edge that can be the difference between making the playoffs and just barely missing.
This analysis will be used in the future for a variety of topics including how much different positions should be paid.
