Playoff Picture Coming Into View: 2024 NFL Week 12 Model
Last week, our 2024 NFL model correctly predicted 11 of the 14 games. So far on the season, it is the fifth most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and has predicted over 68% of games correctly in the 2024 NFL season. The table below contains our week 12 predictions.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Precicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | WAS | DAL | 10.8 |
| 12 | IND | DET | -6.5 |
| 12 | CAR | KC | -11.8 |
| 12 | CHI | MIN | -2.7 |
| 12 | MIA | NE | 8.3 |
| 12 | HOU | TEN | 9.1 |
| 12 | NYG | TB | -2.1 |
| 12 | LV | DEN | -2.9 |
| 12 | SEA | ARI | 0.4 |
| 12 | GB | SF | 5.9 |
| 12 | LAR | PHI | -1.0 |
| 12 | LAC | BAL | -1.7 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
Below is our overall power rankings for week 12 and a history of rankings over the last few weeks.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed. The main story is that Detroit continues to impress, having their championship odds surpass 30% this week! That is nearly double the next best team, the Ravens at just 17%. Green Bay is the only other team to crack 10%, winning the super bowl in exactly 1000 out of 10,000 simulations (which is quite a funny coincidence).
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