Thanksgiving and NFL Week 13 2024 Preview
Last week, our 2024 NFL model correctly predicted 10 of the 13 games. So far on the season, it is the third most accurate of over 50 models tracked here and has predicted over 69% of games correctly in the 2024 NFL season. The table below contains our week 13 predictions.
| Week | Home | Away | Home Team Predicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | DET | CHI | 12.0 |
| 13 | DAL | NYG | 4.4 |
| 13 | GB | MIA | 6.5 |
| 13 | KC | LV | 13.3 |
| 13 | NYJ | SEA | 1.8 |
| 13 | NE | IND | -1.0 |
| 13 | ATL | LAC | 0.1 |
| 13 | MIN | ARI | 5.0 |
| 13 | WAS | TEN | 8.2 |
| 13 | CIN | PIT | 3.7 |
| 13 | JAX | HOU | -3.7 |
| 13 | CAR | TB | -4.8 |
| 13 | NO | LAR | -2.4 |
| 13 | BAL | PHI | 4.9 |
| 13 | BUF | SF | 6.3 |
| 13 | DEN | CLE | 6.5 |
Remember that our model relies on Vegas data and doesn’t directly ingest game data. This means it reacts quickly to the latest information. This results in a model which is an accurate prediction of the future and not just a representation of what happened in the past.
On Thanksgiving day, there isn’t a lot of interest. The closest game of the day is Giants-Cowboys, both teams struggling to find their quarterback of the future. Detroit-Chicago will be over before the Turkey is even in. The best game of the day is probably Green Bay-Miami with a potential for some fireworks.
Below is our overall power rankings for week 13 and a history of rankings over the last few weeks.
The top has been a rollercoaster of Baltimore, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Buffalo, and KC. But the one consistent team at the top this year has been Detroit who is now entering their fifth straight week at #1. Perhaps surprising is 4-7 Cincinnati as the 8th best team in the league, though they are truly a few coin flips and missed field goals away from first place in their division with Joe Burrow looking like an MVP. Vegas seems to have finally given up on the Jets who plummeted down to the bottom half of the league in the rankings this week. Also joining them in near freefall is the injury-riddled 49ers. I would expect San Francisco to rebound later in the season, I wouldn’t expect that for the jets.
Our model also produces championship probabilities, visualized in the graphic below. The model landing page contains more in depth playoff probabilities including odds to make the world series, make the playoffs, etc. The graphic below is meant as a quick look to see how things have changed.
The only real change this week is a slight flattening of the odds. Detroit yielded some of their championship probability back to the field, as did Green Bay. The result is increased odds for Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. There are about eight teams with a good chance at winning the whole thing, but Detroit-Baltimore in the Super Bowl is looking increasingly likely as the weeks tick by.
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