The Luckiest and Unluckiest Teams in NBA Draft Lottery History
A few short months ago, the NBA world was shocked by one of the most unlikely NBA draft lottery results in recent memory. The Dallas Mavericks had the 11th best odds but jumped up, all the way up to the first overall pick. In any other year, this is noteworthy but an extra wrinkle elevated this to a front-page news story.
The Dallas Mavericks earned the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft after their team imploded halfway through the season. Kyrie Irving tore his ACL. Anthony Davis was in and out of the lineup all season. Most importantly though, the Mavericks traded their young star Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for – arguably – pennies on the dollar.
This trade shocked the NBA world. Not only did the Lakers acquire Luka for a lower than expected cost, but it’s also the Lakers. Is it a coincidence that one of the most exciting young stars just happened to end up being traded to the league’s preeminent franchise? That this happened just as NBA ratings were sagging is curious. That the only team that the Mavericks seemingly contacted is curious. That the Mavericks then ended up with the #1 overall pick and drafted Cooper Flagg, a player expected to be a generational talent, is curious!
Whether the Mavericks won the draft lottery by luck or by the commissioner’s sleight of hand, the franchise added a significant value to its ledger by pure luck. In this article we look at which other teams have been particularly lucky or unlucky since the inception of the NBA draft lottery in 1985.
The Luckiest Teams in NBA Draft Lottery History
What’s luckier moving up from 8th to 2nd or from 3rd to 1st? The correct way to compare these two events is to look at how much extra ‘value’ a team gains by moving up. This previous article we wrote estimates the relative value of each draft pick. These charts let us calculate how much value a team gains when it moves up in the draft. Aggregating the total value gained and lost by moving up or down in the draft lets us determine which teams have been the luckiest in NBA draft lottery history.
In our system, 100 points is the value of a #1 overall pick. So, gaining 100 points is the equivalent of being gifted the #1 overall pick in return for nothing. As another example, the 8th pick is worth 50 points so moving from 8th in the lottery to 1st is a +50 point gain. 100 points of value is equivalent to moving from 8th to 1st twice.
With this system, here are the top 5 luckiest teams in NBA draft lottery history.
Rank | Team | Value Gained |
|---|---|---|
1 | Philadelphia 76ers | 140 |
2 | San Antonio Spurs | 120 |
3 | Charlotte Hornets | 94 |
4 | Seattle Supersonics | 54 |
5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 43 |
The luckiest team in NBA draft lottery history is the Philadelphia 76ers. Just based on the way the lottery balls have been selected, the 76ers have essentially been gifted a #1 overall pick and a #11 overall pick. While the 76ers are perhaps surprising, most people’s first instinct when considering the luckiest NBA draft lottery teams is the San Antonio Spurs.
Like the Mavericks’ curious story this year, when the Spurs have won the lottery it has been noteworthy. Everyone remembers when the Spurs snagged Tim Duncan the one year The Admiral went down. Just over twenty years later, the Spurs lucked into Victor Wembanyama. One transcendent big, and one that looks ready to transcend. The Spurs luck is unquestioned in the draft. The reason the Sixers beat out the Spurs is because of quantity. When the Spurs moved up in the draft, they got generational talents so they are quite memorable. The Sixers have just moved up a lot.
An honorable mention for luckiest teams ever are the Cleveland Cavaliers. Not only did they win the rights to draft LeBron James – a top 2 player by basically any advanced metric – they won a championship on the backs of incredible lottery luck in the 2010s. They got Kyrie Irving on a #1 overall pic in 2011 immediately after LeBron let. Then, when he was set to return BAM! They win two more lotteries (lets not talk about what they did with the 2013 and 2014 #1 picks. Wiggins was fine…Bennett though…). Quite some luck!
The Luckiest Teams in NBA Draft Lottery History
Using the same metric, we can calculate the teams that have had the worst lottery luck. Constantly with a chance at a great pick, but constantly falling below expectations. Does anyone on this list surprise you?
Rank | Team | Value Lost |
|---|---|---|
1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 99.9 |
2 | Detroit Pistons | 81.5 |
3 | New York Knicks | 72.3 |
4 | Vancouver/Memphis Grizzlies | 71.1 |
5 | Miami Heat | 70.8 |
The Minnesota Timberwolves are the team the draft lottery has been least friendly too. They’ve consistently moved down in the draft. This has happened consistently enough that it’s basically as if the Timberwolves had the #1 overall pick some year and the league decided to take it away.
While the Pistons have been able to overcome their draft adversity, the next two teams have not. Until recently, the Knicks have been bad for decades. Only through acquiring Carmelo outside the draft did they have a run. Similarly, the Grizzlies have never quite been the face of the NBA. Perhaps consistently losing value via the lottery is bad for business, but what do I know?
The last team on this list is interesting. The Miami Heat have had marked success despite their apparent bad lottery luck. Is this evidence that “Heat Culture” is real? That they win with hard work and who they’re given rather than who they’ve been lucky enough to draft? More likely, it’s a product of South Beach being an attractive free agent draw to the tune of LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Jimmy Butler in recent years.
