Justin Herbert Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Justin Herbert Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Justin Herbert entered 2022 as one of the best young quarterbacks, constantly being compared to Joe Burrow. But Burrow took a step forward in 2022 while Herbert took a step back, at least from a fantasy perspective. This is highlighted in Justin Herbert’s 2.5/10 trend score. This is really not what you want to see from a young QB who should still be improving.
Herbert’s pedigree is pretty strong, though. The 8.5/10 pedigree score for Justin Herbert indicates that in the past – in the recent past! – he has been an elite fantasy option. Just two years ago, he was the overall QB4 before falling to QB11 last year.
Combining the trend and pedigree scores for Justin Herbert rightfully lead to his 7/10 consensus score. Whenever consensus is less than pedigree, we want to look for a reason. In the case of Justin Herbert, his trend in recent performance is a strong reason for his decreased consensus ranking.
Finally, just like many other QBs in or around the elite tier, Justin Herbert has elite consistency. Scoring 9.5/10 in the consistency category means Justin Herbert plays nearly every game, nearly every snap, and has consistent game-to-game performance from a fantasy perspective.
Justin Herbert Stats Analysis
If you look closely at Justin Herbert’s stats, one thing should stick out to you. From 2021 to 2022, two things decreased: his rushing rate and his yards per target. He threw the ball more in 2022 than he did in 2021. He had roughly half as many rushing attempts last year as in 2021.
Both of these factors combined with his trend score are pretty strong alarm bells for people who like Herbert. Unless the Chargers undergo some dramatic changes, I would expect Herbert’s 2023 season to be closer to 2022 than to 2021. But a QB11 at a QB7 price is not what you want.
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