David Montgomery Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023

Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count. 

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David Montgomery Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors

Once we get to David Montgomery, we are beginning to get to running backs with huge, significant question marks. Montgomery is not immune to this effect, he has many many concerns which we’ll go through with our four factors analysis.

We start with his pedigree score. A 4.5/10 pedigree score is bench guy level. This score comesa from Montgomery’s fairly poor performance the last two seasons. He finished as the RB21 last year and the RB20 the year before. 

Looking at the trend score for David Montgomery paints an even worse picture. A 2.5/10 puts Monty in the bottom 25% of trends for fantasy relevant players. In the last 3 years, Montgomery has dropped from 14 to 11 to 8 or so points per game. This is definitively the wrong direction. And now, he is going to be sharing touches.

Montgomery did have a realtively high consistencyt score at a 7/10. This is a product of being reasonably healthy and being the lead back which results in a lot of touches. I wouldn’t expect this number to be predictive of next year as the Lions look to split the backfield work.

Overall, David Montgomery gets a 6/10 consensus score. This corresponds to roughly the RB30, a bit of a step back from where he has been the past few years. This is warranted by his trend score and his change of situation leading to an expected decrease in workload.

David Montgomery Stats Analysis

I honestly think the ship has sailed on David Montgomery. He really only had one good year and hasn’t been able to get to where he needs to to be elite. On the Lions, things are even a bit worse. He has to compete with Jahmyr Gibbs for touches. And Amon-Ra St. Brown. 

If Montgomery couldn’t do it in Chicago where he got a high % of the snaps, I don’t know if he’ll be successful in Detroit. He would need to put up a Jamaal Williams amount of touchdowns to get there. Not impossible, but certainly unlikely. 

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