Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023

Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count. 

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Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors

Jahmyr Gibbs was the second back taken in the NFL draft this year and is the second rookie back being drafted in fantasy this year, behind Bijan Robinson. When the Lions selected Gibbs at #12 overall, those watching from home let out a collective “Huh?”

There were two things strange about the Gibbs pick. First, most people thought RB was a strength for the Lions. De’Andre Swift was exciting, yet injury prone. Jamaal Williams was a redzone monster who had a fantastic season. So why draft Jahmyr Gibbs #12?

The #12 overall pick gives Jahmyr Gibbs near-elite pedigree. His 8/10 pedigree is equivalent to other running backs including Aaron Jones and James Conner. This pedigree score is an indication of expected very good play from Jahmyr Gibbs.

The problem most people see is that he is on the Lions. The Lions offense is of dubious quality as long as Jared Goff is the quarterback. Even worse, the Lions brought in David Montgomery, presumably to be Gibbs backup. But a veteran like Montgomery isn’t going to sit around, he is going to take touches. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibbs and Montgomery have roles similar to Swift/Williams from last year. It is impossible to tell how this will work out, hence Jahmyr Gibbs 7/10 consensus score.

Jahmyr Gibbs Stats Analysis

To understand rookies, it can be helpful to understand their pre draft profile.  Gibbs profiles as an elusive, pass catching back. The official NFL comp in his draft profile is Alvin Kamara.

This would point to David Montgomery getting the early down work, Gibbs getting the 3rd down work, and them potentially splitting goal line work. I would definitely rather have Gibbs than Montgomery in this scenario, but split backfields on middling offenses can be worrisome. 

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