CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023

Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count. 

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CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors

CeeDee Lamb is a very interesting prospect this year. I want to start with his trend score. Lamb went from WR16 to WR6 from 2021 to 2022. This is exactly the type of performance you would expect to see from a receiver coming into their prime. 

However, the 6/10 trend score is not overwhelmingly impressive. It means he got better, but not so much that we can expect the moon from him this year. In fact, my best guess is that the WR6 performance he put up last year is his peak.

This is reflected in both his consensus and pedigree scores. A 9/10 consensus corresponds to elite performance and a roughly end of the first, beginning of the second type pick. 

The pedigree score matching the consensus score means that he is not being unfairly boosted or dinged for any factors outside of his resume. That is, he is ranked roughly exactly where he should based on his past production. 

Finally, he has been above average in consistency. A big part of this is injuries and availability – CeeDee Lamb has not missed a game in his 3 year career. The variance in his fantasy points week to week has been roughly average. This, combined with his elite availability leads to a 7/10 consistency ranking.

CeeDee Lamb Stats Analysis

I am largely expecting “more of the same” from CeeDee Lamb this year. Last year he finished as WR6 and this year is being drafted as WR7. One thing of note for fantasy drafters is that, as I mentioned above, Lamb is being drafted near where I think his ceiling is. 

Barring injuries from some of the top dogs, it is hard for me to justify Lamb outperforming anyone drafted ahead of him except perhaps Diggs. This doesn’t mean he is a bad pick, it is just an important datapoint when constructing a roster. 

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