David Njoku Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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David Njoku Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
David Njoku has a lot of people excited this year. The problem is, people have been saying this for a long time about him. I was pretty excited last year because he got a huge paycheck. And while last year was the best in his career, it still wasn’t that impressive.
David Njoku comes into our four factors analysis with a 2.5/10 pedigree score. This is a level of performance where a player is barely startable, only in dire situations. Part of his problem is he hasn’t stayed healthy so he hasn’t put up the super productive seasons. But even his per game stats are unimpressive.
Injury and lack of availability has been the story of Njoku’s career. He has missed time in 3 of his 6 seasons including 2 games last year. He has also been pretty inconsistent in the games he has played. This is typical for tight ends whose weeks are made or lost by touchdowns, but his is still pretty bad.
The most positive factor for Njoku is his 6.5/10 trend score. This indicates that he played better in 2022 than in 2021. And he did, he was about 33% more effective or 1.5 fantasy points in 2022 than 2021. So his trend is nice, but not shockingly nice like for Evan Engram.
The expert opinion on David Njoku is quite a bit more favorable. HIs 4/10 is not insanely impressive, it is a back end TE1, but is well above his pedigree score. This is explainable by noting his positive trend score, but there is always a chance that this is an overcorrection.
David Njoku Stats Analysis
One of the best things you can do when using four factors analysis is to try to see if you can explain trend scores. If somebody has a really positive trend and you can identify the reason, you can try to predict if it will continue.
A super positive trend for an RB who replaced a starter at the end of the season probably doesn’t mean much. A positive trend for a receiver when their start QB came back probably is likely to stick better.
For Njoku, his trend score is largely based on the difference between 2021 and 2022. If you actually look at the very end of last year, Njoku played fairly poorly. This corresponds with when Deshaun Watson came in. I would expect Njoku’s trend score to be over inflated.
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