TJ Hockenson Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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TJ Hockenson Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
TJ Hockenson is one of the fantasy players I find hard to understand. Last year, the Lions shockingly traded him to Minnesota 7 games into the season. A mid season trade is hard in any sport, but football has so many moving pieces that I’m surprised Hock didn’t struggle more.
But he did struggle, at least for the first 5 or so games he was there. He failed to find any consistent production. That is, until the last few games of the season where he commanded monster target shares.
If you look at his 2021 campaign though, it is the opposite. TJ Hockenson started the season well and ended kind of flat. This up and down motion really muddys the waters and results in the Hock getting a middling 5/10 consistency score.
Even worse, if you look at Hockenson’s game-by-game stats last year, his consistency is in the dumps. Remember consistency is a mix of snap percentage (opportunities) and variance in fantasy scores. Hock played a lot, so for his consistency to be a 3/10 tells you how crazy swingy he was last year.
That is just the name of the game for tight ends, though.Outside of the top 1 or 2 tight ends, typically players are fighting for scraps. You hope your tight end gets touchdown to make it a good week. Because of this, though inconsistent, TJ Hockenson was able to get a 6.5/10 pedigree score.
Overall, TJ Hockenson is being drafted as the TE3 which is the equivalent of an 8/10 consensus ranking score. A lot of stock is being put into the end of last season where TJ Hockenson started seeing 10+ targets in some games. If you draft him, you better hope that stays the case because otherwise, his price tag doesn’t match his report card
TJ Hockenson Stats Analysis
The Vikings offense is fascinating, and I said as much in my writeup about Alexander Mattison. In fact the whole Vikings team is fascinating. The offense should, by all accounts, be pretty impressive this year. They aren’t going to set records by any means. But Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Kirk Cousins should be able to put up quite a few yards.
I still think there is a risk of TJ Hockenson being drafted too early. The sample size which motivates his early draft pick is so small that I find it hard to extrapolate and make predictions about next year. Of course, I could be wrong and TJ Hockenson could finish as TE2 or better.
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