NBA Christmas Day Preview 2023

Quick notes….

• Best game of the day? Laker – Celtics
• Biggest projected blowout? Philly by 8.5
• Best matchup between stars? Jokic v. Curry
• Best storyline? DiVincenzo revenge game. (Just kidding, probably Lakers v. Celtics, if either wins or fails to win the championship this year, there will be lots of chatter. Will Lebron retire? Will the Celtics ever win behind Tatum? Should the Lakers blow it up? etc, etc.)

Use these links to skip ahead to your favorite game…Bucks @ Knicks; Warriors @ Nuggets; Celtics @ Lakers; 76ers @ Heat; Mavs @ Suns

It is really a great time of year. Family, sports, and presents. This year our present to you is that our NBA Model is now live. We’re going to use The Data Jocks Sparse Impacts NBA model to preview the games and see how the model works.

Our model assigns overall team ratings where the difference between two teams’ ratings is a predicted margin of victory. We typically adjust this predicted margin of victory 3 points in favor of the home team.

Our model also assigns ratings to each team’s top 2 players. For example, the Sparse Impacts Model has the Thunder as an overall +7.2 rating. However, SGA alone according to our model is a +7.3. That means the rest of the guys combine to a -0.1. The model is designed to capture overall team quality as well as predict how certain absences will impact team strength.

Now that we’re familiar with the model, let’s look at the 2023 XMAS day slate of games.

Game 1: Bucks @ Knicks

The first game of the day is Milwaukee at New York. The Bucks made a lot of noise this offseason with one of the biggest trades over the last decade when they acquired Damian Lillard (+2.7). There have been some growing pains for sure, but the Giannis Antetokounmpo (+3.7) led team looks to be a contender.

The Knicks’ season story is all about Jalen Brunson (+2.6) who is emerging as a bona fide star. His 50 point game last week set a record for not missing a shot in the second half at all. The Knicks’ second best player this year has been the former Milwaukee rotation player Donte Divincenzo (+0.7).

Overall, Milwaukee is a +2.9 as a team while the Knicks are right behind at a +2.7. This game being at Madison Square Garden means our model favors the Knicks by about 3 points. But Milwaukee has been coming on stronger as of late and this game might lean a bit more towards them.

Game 2: Warriors @ Nuggets

The day’s second game is the Warriors @ the Nuggets. The Golden State Warriors have been all over the NBA media this year, and not for anything good. Many claim this year is the end of their dynastic run. This is hard to argue with as they are merely a .500 team a third of the way through the season.

The Warriors are still held by Steph Curry (+4.4) as one of the best in the league. But their second best player has been Kevon Looney (+1.9) who has been quite surprising this year. The problem is the rest of the team has been pretty bad. Even worse, they’re without their…I don’t know what to call him, leader?….Draymond Green who is suspended indefinitely for repeated violent acts.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are rolling comfortably as defending champs. Our model currently has their MVP Nikola Jokic (+8.1) as the second best player in the league. His guard-level finesse from the center position is always a treat to see. Their star guard Jamal Murray (+1.9) is also always a deadly threat to get hot and go for 50.

Overall, the Warriors are a +2.5, slightly above average despite all the negative media attention. The Nuggets, though, are the fourth best team (+6.8) according to our model. This game being in Denver shifts things further in their favor to the Nuggets by 7.

Game 3: Celtics @ Lakers

To the surprise of nobody, the NBA selected Celtics @ Lakers for their premier game of the day. These two franchises always seem paired together (check out this HBO show to see just what this rivalry means…). In the finals, in the news, now they’re paired again on XMAS day.

The Celtics made huge splashes this offseason. They lost Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and the Time Lord. But what they added has been nothing short of exquisite: Jrue Holiday and Porzingis. The real Celtics story this year, though, is the ascension of Derrick White (+3.9) to star level. He is actually been the best Celtic on the court this year. The next best, and who nearly everyone agrees is actually their best player, is Jayson Tatum (+2.4).

While the Celtics are very deep with talent across the lineup, the Lakers are more a “studs and duds” build. Lebron James (+5.3) and Anthony Davis (+5.1) have both been top 10 quality so far this year. The rest of the roster has been bad. Not just bad, but their 3rd-15th guys are the 6th worst unit in the league.

Overall, this makes for a fun matchup which couldn’t be more star-studded. The Celtics overall are a +9.1, second best in the league. The Lakers are a +1.2, quite a ways back. However, this game being on the west coast leads to our line of Celtics by 5.

Game 4: 76ers @ Heat

The fourth game of the day is the Philadelphia 76ers @ the Miami Heat. There are some interesting story lines here, but this game is about Jimmy Butler (+0.9). The former 6ers player is one of the weirdest players in the league. Butler is consistently (like every year) average in the regular season, but a GOD in the playoffs. The Heat have been pretty bad so far; this is made clear by knowing their second best player to this point has been…Kevin Love (-0.7).

The 76ers, on the other hand, are rolling. Joel Embiid (+8.5) has been the best player in the league so far this year. After the departure of James Harden (who is playing really well, actually), Tyrese Maxey (+3.0) has emerged as a star. The rest of the roster is average, but behind these two that is more than enough.

Philadelphia (+10.3) is our model’s favorite team so far this year, a full point better than Boston and four better than #3 OKC. The Heat (-1.2) are below league average. Luckily for viewers, this game is in Miami, or else it would be a huge blowout game. Our model has Philly favored by 8.5

Game 5: Mavs @ Suns

The last game of the day is Mavs @ Suns. Mavericks star Luka Doncic (+7.2) is our model’s fourth favorite player this year, behind Embiid, Jokic, and SGA. He is certainly in MVP consideration\. The Mavericks are struggling a bit, though, partially because they’re missing their second best player Kyrie Irving (+2.7). His absence truly hurts.

The Suns have had a surprisingly slow start to the season. Unfortunately, Bradley Beal injured himself on a freak play just about a week ago. In order to make a run this year, the Phoenix faithful will need Kevin Durant (+2.6) and Devin Booker (+1.6) to perform much better than they have so far.

Overall, our model has the Mavericks at a +2.1, but Kyrie’s absence shifts them to a -0.6. The Suns come in at a sad +0.2, basically a league average team. Our model has the suns favored by 3.5 for the last game of the day. If you want to go to bed before this one, I don’t blame you.