[Quick Hit] The Day the Warriors Dynasty Truly Started: Oct 31, 2012

October 31, 2012. That’s the day the Warriors dynasty started. On October 31, 2012, Steph Curry agreed to a 4 year, $44 million contract that at the time looked like a risky contract for a chronically injured yet dynamic young player. While the Warriors dynasty as we know it didn’t begin to arrive until the 2013-2014 playoffs when they took the lob city Clippers to 7, the groundwork was set on October 31, 2012.

The NBA isn’t only about accruing talent. Like any salary cap league, the way to win is to sign good players for less than they are worth. The NFL is the same way: one huge cause in the Chiefs 2019-20 Championship was that soon-to-be $500 million dollar man Patrick Mahomes playing on, essentially, a huge discount.

Just how much of an advantage was Steph’s team friendly deal? Let’s dig into it and show how it led to the Warriors dynasty.

Steph Curry’s True Value

I have written previously discussing two different ways to value a player based on their Win Shares. Here are Steph Curry’s win shares during his second contract (per basketball-reference).

Season	Win Shares
2012-2013	11.2
2013-2014	13.4
2014-2015	15.7
2015-2016	17.9

This means that, for instance, in 2014-2015 Steph Curry was solely responsible for 15.7 of the Warriors wins. If Steph were replaced by a replacement-level player, the Warriors would have won about 16 fewer. Be aware, this is an estimate, but historically win shares have accurately measured players’ contributions to their teams.

Using our model, what was Steph actually worth during this contract? Asked another way, if you convert his win shares to a dollar amount, how much did the Warriors save? The last column below is the important one. It shows our estimate for how much value Steph Curry added above what he was paid. We compute it by taking our simple model’s estimate for Steph Curry’s actual value and subtracting his actual salary. Note: the model is adjusted relative to the salary cap at the time.

Season	Salary	Model Value	Value above Contract
2012-2013	$9.88M	$18.58M	+$8.7M
2013-2014	$10.63M	$22.38M	+$11.75M
2014-2015	$11.37M	$27.66M	+$16.29M
2015-2016	$12.11M	$34.68M	+$22.57M

Those numbers mean that Steph played between 8 and 22 million dollars better than his contract would suggest over the length of the second contract.

Let me give perspective on how hard it is to find that much value in a second-contract player. In 2020 the highest ‘Value above Contract’ of a non-rookie scale player is George Hill. George Hill this year has provided +$4M of value relative to his contract. Since payroll has increased by about 1.5x since 2015-2016, Curry’s 2020-adjusted added value is something like $33 million dollars.

I’m just going to say that again because of how absurd it is. George Hill has been the most valuable non-rookie contract in 2020, providing $4 Million dollars over his contract value. Adjusting Steph Curry’s 15-16 numbers, he provided $33 million above his contract value.

Repercussions and Signings

Sure, I can argue that Steph Curry provided a ton of value over what he was paid, but what did the Warriors do with the available money? Let’s look at some of the Warriors biggest and most important signings during this era.

Andre Iguodala

In 2014-2015, Andrew Iguodala was the Warriors sixth most important player by win shares. Not only that, but his veteran experience was so important that he was the finals MVP in the Warriors first title run. No matter how you slice it, the guy was vital. He made about $12 million per year on his first Warriors contract. If Steph made what he was worth, Andre Iguodala’s $12 million is no longer there.

Andrew Bogut

The Warriors actually traded for Andrew Bogut during the 2012-2013 season but then re-signed the following off-season for about $13 million/year. Again, Bogut was instrumental in the pre-Durant Warriors run and his re-signing probably would not have been possible if Steph Curry had gotten paid what he ended up being worth.

The Little Guys

You may argue that the Warriors would have found a way to sign Iguodala and Bogut even if Curry had gotten what he was worth. And, that may be so. However, as we have seen with the 2019-2020 Lakers, if all your money is tied up in high value free agents, it can be very difficult to sign even roster filler. So, if Curry had made what he should have, we might not have gotten Mo Speights, Shaun Livingston, or Anderson Verajao.

Later Effects Contributing to the Warriors Dynasty

The immediate impact of Steph Curry’s cheap contract was that the Warriors could fill out their roster with many, many mid-tier players who provide great value. However, perhaps the most important effect is that, after Steph’s cheap deal expired, the Warriors were establsihed as an all-time great dynasty. After almost winning a second straight title after the greatest regular season of all time, everyone wanted to be a Warrior.

Most importantly, Kevin Durant wanted to be a Warrior. He wanted to win. If the Warriors hadn’t been quite as successful, if they maybe only won 60 games in 15-16 or lost the championship in 14-15, I don’t know if Durant would have been a Warrior. What I do know, is if the Warriors hadn’t been so previously dominant, Durant would not have taken a pay cut to play with them.

Either way, the second half of the Warriors dynasty (middle third if you are optimistic in the summer of 2020) began when Kevin Durant signed. However, that would never have happened if the prior three seasons hadn’t gone how they did. And, the catalyst for the beginning of the Warriors dynasty was, as I have argued, Steph Curry signing his team-friendly contract in the fall of 2012.

One thing leads to another in the NBA. Steph took a cheap deal and got better. The Warriors continued to draft well. They use Steph’s left-over money to sign big free agents. They win a title then set the record for best regular season of all-time. Then, arguably the 2nd best player in the world decides he wants in and will do it for cheap. They win two more titles (easily!). Here we are today, they might still have more. But, it all starts with Steph Curry signing his 4 year, $44 million deal on October 31, 2012.