NBA Economics and Cost per Win
It can be hard to forget that professional sports are a business. As much as we love to talk about owners showing loyalty to players or wanting to win a championship for the fans, money is forefront. As an owner, I am paying Steph Curry $40,000,000 simply because I believe his presence on my team brings in at least $40,000,000 in revenue. The most direct way to measure this is by thinking about player salaries as buying wins. In this article we want to study: How much does a win cost? Or another way, what is a player worth to a team?
We’re going to discuss two different techniques (models) to determine how much a win costs in the NBA. These two models, when combined with win share data, can also be used to determine NBA player values if they were to get a new contract tomorrow. Along the way, we’ll show a table which shows how much every NBA player out/underperforms their contract value. Through this, we’ll see the overwhelming value provided by having good rookies (e.g., Anunoby, VanVleet) and elite second-contract players (e.g., Giannis, AD).
The First NBA Cost per Win Model
Sometimes the simplest model is best. If we want to compute the average cost per win, why don’t we take the entire NBA payroll and divide by the number of wins. The resulting number is literally dollars per win this year. Doing so gives
$3,585,428,729/1230 games = $2,914,983 per win
This is our first estimate. A win in terms of NBA player salary is worth about 2.9 million dollars. That means that a player who contributes 5 wins to his teams total should be worth a contract of about 14.5 million.
A Linear Model for NBA Cost per Win
Adding one wrinkle of complexity gets us to a linear model. A linear model basically says ‘You pay a base rate just to have a warm body on the team then pay for every win after that.’ Business majors think: fixed cost (warm body cost) plus marginal cost (cost per win).
In data science, you can infer the fixed cost and marginal cost using least squares regression. We start by plotting every players wins contributed against their salary. Then we fit a line to the data. This line is the line that best explains the observed data. For us, we want to try to compute contract value in terms of wins. Thus, we might say that
Salary = A*Wins + B
where A and B are numbers to-be-determined by the available data. Before showing what we find, we must comment on how to compute ‘wins’ above. Individual players don’t earn wins. Giannis isn’t given 0.23 wins from beating the Celtics on a given night. We can’t necessarily say that Steph Curry was responsible for 17.9 of the 2015-2016 Warriors wins.
However, historically the stat ‘Win Shares’ (WS) has been used to estimate the number of wins a player contributes. WS generally works very well. Adding up the win shares for every player on a team generally comes within a few percent of the teams actually wins.
Now, to the matter at hand. If we calculate the coefficients A and B above we get an equation that describes a player’s salary in terms of their win shares. We get:
Salary = WS*$1.6 million + $1.86 million.
Here is the data plotted with the line of best fit.
Model Interpretation
One interesting thing to note is that the second model has a salary associated to providing 0 wins to your team: $1.86 million. Does this make sense? Why would you pay a player to provide nothing? Remember that 0 win shares doesn’t only mean that a player adds nothing. It also means the player doesn’t take anything away. The $1.86 million can be thought of as what you pay in order to just have a warm body to fill a few minutes here and there.
The funny thing is, this $1.86 million number is shockingly close to the NBA veteran minimum contract value. A minimum contract player should be thought of as a warm body to fill the end of your roster. They might not add much, but they aren’t going to actively hurt your team. I think it is pretty interesting that our model kind of spits out the minimum contract value without knowing that information beforehand.
One other note about this model that is a bit technical. Notice that as win shares increase, almost all the players lie above the plotted line. This means the players get paid more than their win shares suggest they are worth according to this model. If you didn’t know any better, you would argue that this means star players are over-valued. I argue it means our model is not exactly correct. It is just a start. What I mean is, a linear model may not be the most appropriate. One other way to see this is that our linear model has patterned residuals.
Trade Value
Just like in the NFL, because of the existence of a salary cap, the most desirable players are those who play the furthest above their contract value. On the contrary, the worst player to have on a team is one who plays far below their contract value. For instance, Blake Griffin is probably the least tradeable player in the NBA but is by no means the worst absolute player.
Using this idea, who are the most valuable NBA contracts? We used each cost per win model above and computed the predicted contract value based on each player’s win shares. Then, we compared this to that player’s actual contract value. Those whose actual value is the most positive, the furthest above their contract value, are the most desirable players. They are the players who should return the most in a hypothetical trade. On the other hand, the players whose actual value is the furthest below their contract value are the least desirable. The table below shows every player’s value relative to contract value based on win shares using each model.
| Player | 2019-2020 Salary | Value Above Contract, Linear Model | Value Above Contract, Average Cost per win Model |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | $7,683,360 | $26,799,452 | $13,186,577 | |
| John Collins | $2,686,560 | $25,880,271 | $14,922,335 | |
| Jarrett Allen | $2,376,840 | $25,623,651 | $14,919,875 | |
| Domantas Sabonis | $3,529,555 | $25,385,193 | $14,271,121 | |
| Mitchell Robinson | $1,559,712 | $25,086,097 | $14,990,267 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,454,080 | $24,764,572 | $13,962,891 | |
| Richaun Holmes | $4,767,000 | $21,852,092 | $11,768,252 | |
| Ben Simmons | $8,113,930 | $20,821,109 | $9,697,931 | |
| Montrezl Harrell | $6,000,000 | $20,558,731 | $10,501,980 | |
| Pascal Siakam | $2,351,839 | $19,160,733 | $11,368,568 | |
| Daniel Theis | $5,000,000 | $18,902,858 | $10,037,994 | |
| Brandon Clarke | $2,478,840 | $18,127,072 | $10,741,793 | |
| Christian Wood | $1,645,357 | $18,016,672 | $11,054,983 | |
| OG Anunoby | $2,281,800 | $17,464,039 | $10,464,738 | |
| Trae Young | $6,273,000 | $17,231,477 | $8,545,396 | |
| Nerlens Noel | $2,028,594 | $17,172,063 | $10,417,425 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $7,830,000 | $17,159,352 | $7,806,897 | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | $3,952,920 | $16,876,714 | $9,391,033 | |
| Fred VanVleet | $9,000,000 | $16,673,440 | $7,013,984 | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $25,842,697 | $16,271,863 | -$765,945 | |
| Derrick Jones Jr. | $1,645,357 | $16,180,503 | $10,042,839 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $1,416,852 | $15,937,278 | $10,011,314 | |
| Anthony Davis | $27,093,019 | $15,700,808 | -$1,641,837 | |
| Ivica Zubac | $6,481,482 | $15,429,471 | $7,458,523 | |
| Donovan Mitchell | $3,635,760 | $15,070,825 | $8,537,914 | |
| Robert Williams | $1,937,520 | $14,547,210 | $9,011,411 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,534,829 | $14,013,242 | $6,653,920 | |
| Clint Capela | $16,456,522 | $13,575,274 | $1,959,900 | |
| Keldon Johnson | $1,950,600 | $13,515,955 | $8,437,087 | |
| Enes Kanter | $4,767,000 | $13,366,203 | $7,090,611 | |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | $5,201,400 | $13,142,654 | $6,772,438 | |
| Dwight Howard | $5,603,850 | $13,102,735 | $6,569,824 | |
| Chris Boucher | $1,588,231 | $13,061,908 | $8,349,426 | |
| Jamal Murray | $4,444,746 | $12,975,981 | $7,020,131 | |
| Royce O'Neale | $1,618,520 | $12,857,859 | $8,223,356 | |
| Derrick White | $1,948,080 | $12,815,450 | $8,052,081 | |
| Jordan McLaughlin | $0 | $12,748,191 | $8,889,254 | |
| Donte DiVincenzo | $2,905,800 | $12,667,274 | $7,540,603 | |
| Rudy Gobert | $25,008,427 | $12,603,423 | -$2,413,684 | |
| JaVale McGee | $4,000,000 | $12,521,093 | $6,968,975 | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | $4,000,000 | $12,496,339 | $6,955,330 | |
| Brandon Ingram | $7,265,485 | $12,396,544 | $5,434,855 | |
| Luke Kennard | $3,827,160 | $12,392,637 | $6,975,733 | |
| T.J. Warren | $10,810,000 | $12,379,340 | $3,834,684 | |
| Marquese Chriss | $1,413,272 | $12,361,256 | $8,041,726 | |
| De'Aaron Fox | $6,392,760 | $12,354,580 | $5,803,380 | |
| Thomas Bryant | $7,936,508 | $12,328,959 | $5,096,462 | |
| DeAndre Jordan | $9,881,598 | $12,313,913 | $4,215,262 | |
| Damian Lillard | $29,802,321 | $12,208,763 | -$4,782,607 | |
| George Hill | $10,133,907 | $12,148,418 | $4,010,808 | |
| Jonathan Isaac | $5,806,440 | $11,769,191 | $5,743,824 | |
| Tony Bradley | $1,962,360 | $11,637,542 | $7,396,379 | |
| Mikal Bridges | $4,161,000 | $11,555,948 | $6,364,710 | |
| Devonte' Graham | $1,416,852 | $11,483,103 | $7,556,059 | |
| Dwight Powell | $10,259,375 | $11,253,197 | $3,461,032 | |
| Shake Milton | $1,445,697 | $11,103,304 | $7,333,759 | |
| Alec Burks | $2,320,044 | $11,080,043 | $6,928,552 | |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $2,500,000 | $11,044,953 | $6,828,450 | |
| Norman Powell | $10,116,576 | $11,028,260 | $3,401,125 | |
| Monte Morris | $1,588,231 | $10,854,353 | $7,132,565 | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $6,825,000 | $10,770,160 | $4,736,028 | |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,754,886 | $10,731,695 | $6,092,614 | |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $2,177,483 | $10,659,237 | $6,760,571 | |
| Pat Connaughton | $1,723,050 | $10,406,759 | $6,825,336 | |
| Brad Wanamaker | $1,445,697 | $10,337,402 | $6,911,574 | |
| Zion Williamson | $9,757,440 | $10,161,608 | $3,084,576 | |
| Danuel House | $3,540,000 | $10,118,776 | $5,851,192 | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | $1,416,852 | $10,014,950 | $6,746,775 | |
| Deandre Ayton | $9,562,920 | $9,936,780 | $3,047,940 | |
| Damian Jones | $2,305,057 | $9,863,671 | $6,264,782 | |
| Landry Shamet | $1,995,120 | $9,730,810 | $6,330,638 | |
| Jaxson Hayes | $4,862,040 | $9,703,764 | $5,029,130 | |
| Daniel Gafford | $898,310 | $9,663,418 | $6,785,710 | |
| Dario èaric | $3,481,986 | $9,555,937 | $5,566,976 | |
| Josh Hart | $1,934,160 | $9,465,665 | $6,211,840 | |
| Terence Davis | $898,310 | $9,393,198 | $6,636,758 | |
| Glenn Robinson III | $1,882,867 | $9,297,502 | $6,142,164 | |
| Michael Porter Jr. | $3,389,400 | $9,213,925 | $5,420,001 | |
| Ben McLemore | $2,028,594 | $9,081,185 | $5,957,526 | |
| Justin Holiday | $4,767,000 | $8,985,329 | $4,675,761 | |
| Wesley Matthews | $2,564,753 | $8,851,537 | $5,590,324 | |
| John Konchar | $0 | $8,806,316 | $6,716,392 | |
| Drew Eubanks | $0 | $8,691,948 | $6,653,349 | |
| Jahlil Okafor | $1,702,486 | $8,655,419 | $5,869,181 | |
| Seth Curry | $7,441,860 | $8,617,873 | $3,272,801 | |
| Davis Bertans | $7,000,000 | $8,492,593 | $3,402,040 | |
| Gary Trent Jr. | $1,416,852 | $8,379,401 | $5,845,218 | |
| James Harden | $37,800,000 | $8,248,153 | -$10,554,950 | |
| Michael Carter-Williams | $2,028,594 | $8,063,724 | $5,396,675 | |
| Garrison Mathews | $0 | $7,967,619 | $6,254,080 | |
| Khem Birch | $3,000,000 | $7,955,477 | $4,901,064 | |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $16,000,000 | $7,902,858 | -$962,006 | |
| Skal Labissi?re | $2,338,847 | $7,801,760 | $5,113,040 | |
| Timoth? Luwawu-Cabarrot | $844,170 | $7,801,545 | $5,783,694 | |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | $6,927,480 | $7,749,714 | $3,025,090 | |
| Furkan Korkmaz | $1,620,564 | $7,674,992 | $5,365,509 | |
| T.J. McConnell | $3,500,000 | $7,609,779 | $4,486,120 | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $27,250,000 | $7,579,879 | -$6,188,751 | |
| Maxi Kleber | $8,000,000 | $7,504,557 | $2,408,634 | |
| Eric Paschall | $898,310 | $7,467,690 | $5,575,368 | |
| Damion Lee | $842,327 | $7,450,501 | $5,591,017 | |
| Shaquille Harrison | $898,310 | $7,439,896 | $5,560,047 | |
| Jalen Brunson | $1,416,582 | $7,389,734 | $5,299,810 | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $10,600,000 | $7,327,144 | $1,144,026 | |
| Cameron Johnson | $4,033,440 | $7,288,967 | $4,069,885 | |
| Brook Lopez | $12,093,024 | $7,240,170 | $426,054 | |
| Bruce Brown | $1,416,852 | $7,237,631 | $5,215,845 | |
| Joe Harris | $7,670,000 | $7,225,984 | $2,403,173 | |
| Trey Burke | $2,257,814 | $7,158,463 | $4,794,804 | |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,300,400 | $7,129,086 | $3,413,176 | |
| Dejounte Murray | $2,321,735 | $7,094,542 | $4,730,883 | |
| Lou Williams | $8,000,000 | $7,077,187 | $2,173,057 | |
| Nicolas Claxton | $898,310 | $7,069,309 | $5,355,770 | |
| Jeff Green | $3,405,180 | $7,052,320 | $4,221,387 | |
| Kyle O'Quinn | $2,028,594 | $7,038,007 | $4,831,273 | |
| JaMychal Green | $4,767,000 | $6,994,724 | $3,578,488 | |
| David Nwaba | $2,581,965 | $6,979,178 | $4,550,507 | |
| Moritz Wagner | $2,063,520 | $6,966,449 | $4,776,155 | |
| Rodney Hood | $5,718,000 | $6,802,545 | $3,045,770 | |
| Alex Len | $4,160,000 | $6,704,936 | $3,691,156 | |
| JaKarr Sampson | $1,737,145 | $6,699,158 | $4,775,286 | |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $7,000,000 | $6,658,776 | $2,391,192 | |
| Chris Silva | $466,918 | $6,595,290 | $5,288,076 | |
| Jalen McDaniels | $898,310 | $6,571,333 | $5,081,273 | |
| Aron Baynes | $5,453,280 | $6,498,149 | $2,996,779 | |
| James Ennis | $1,882,867 | $6,431,171 | $4,562,168 | |
| Boban Marjanovic | $3,500,000 | $6,278,442 | $3,752,252 | |
| Johnathan Williams | $106,181 | $6,267,915 | $5,269,508 | |
| Austin Rivers | $2,174,318 | $6,261,985 | $4,338,113 | |
| Wesley Iwundu | $1,618,520 | $6,195,876 | $4,551,100 | |
| Jae Crowder | $7,815,533 | $6,158,446 | $1,749,407 | |
| Torrey Craig | $2,100,000 | $6,142,365 | $4,305,527 | |
| Matt Thomas | $898,310 | $6,097,648 | $4,820,166 | |
| Jevon Carter | $1,416,852 | $6,001,276 | $4,534,335 | |
| Josh Okogie | $2,530,680 | $5,950,979 | $4,006,752 | |
| Matisse Thybulle | $2,582,160 | $5,875,774 | $3,942,195 | |
| Kyle Kuzma | $1,974,600 | $5,862,403 | $4,207,481 | |
| Alex Caruso | $2,750,000 | $5,840,090 | $3,847,202 | |
| Caleb Martin | $898,310 | $5,741,373 | $4,623,778 | |
| Harry Giles | $2,578,800 | $5,735,238 | $3,866,235 | |
| Kendrick Nunn | $1,416,852 | $5,718,330 | $4,378,367 | |
| Eric Bledsoe | $15,625,000 | $5,534,907 | -$2,098,991 | |
| Nikola Jokic | $26,573,595 | $5,515,174 | -$7,023,317 | |
| Naz Reid | $898,310 | $5,475,786 | $4,477,379 | |
| Jerami Grant | $9,346,153 | $5,466,886 | $681,299 | |
| Kris Dunn | $5,348,007 | $5,431,713 | $2,456,176 | |
| Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | $1,416,852 | $5,412,536 | $4,209,806 | |
| Gary Clark | $1,427,191 | $5,402,197 | $4,199,467 | |
| Marcus Smart | $12,553,471 | $5,373,673 | -$809,445 | |
| Shabazz Napier | $1,882,867 | $5,373,358 | $3,979,074 | |
| Aaron Holiday | $2,239,200 | $5,366,255 | $3,815,246 | |
| De'Anthony Melton | $1,416,852 | $5,355,624 | $4,178,435 | |
| Caris LeVert | $2,625,718 | $5,341,901 | $3,628,362 | |
| Luguentz Dort | $155,647 | $5,156,099 | $4,634,448 | |
| Grayson Allen | $2,429,400 | $5,118,871 | $3,593,525 | |
| Luke Kornet | $2,195,122 | $5,108,529 | $3,692,962 | |
| Keita Bates-Diop | $1,416,852 | $5,102,109 | $4,038,691 | |
| Isaac Bonga | $1,416,852 | $5,102,109 | $4,038,691 | |
| Buddy Hield | $4,861,208 | $5,098,316 | $2,490,862 | |
| Troy Brown Jr. | $3,219,480 | $5,094,558 | $3,225,555 | |
| Patrick McCaw | $4,000,000 | $5,044,325 | $2,847,588 | |
| Semi Ojeleye | $1,618,520 | $4,963,426 | $3,871,742 | |
| Delon Wright | $9,473,684 | $4,933,518 | $330,060 | |
| Cheick Diallo | $1,678,854 | $4,932,575 | $3,827,659 | |
| P.J. Tucker | $8,349,039 | $4,930,327 | $833,013 | |
| D.J. Augustin | $7,250,000 | $4,911,103 | $1,315,637 | |
| Georges Niang | $1,678,854 | $4,840,107 | $3,776,689 | |
| Ja Morant | $8,730,240 | $4,826,605 | $604,765 | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $8,089,282 | $4,728,193 | $838,163 | |
| Noah Vonleh | $2,000,000 | $4,639,683 | $3,522,088 | |
| Derrick Rose | $7,317,073 | $4,634,356 | $1,132,986 | |
| Patrick Patterson | $3,068,660 | $4,628,871 | $3,036,540 | |
| Mike Muscala | $2,028,594 | $4,582,835 | $3,477,919 | |
| Javonte Green | $898,310 | $4,579,428 | $3,983,284 | |
| Patrick Beverley | $12,345,679 | $4,526,927 | -$1,182,941 | |
| Rui Hachimura | $4,469,160 | $4,494,412 | $2,333,915 | |
| Willy Hernang?mez | $1,676,735 | $4,491,745 | $3,585,613 | |
| Garrett Temple | $4,767,000 | $4,485,719 | $2,195,460 | |
| Collin Sexton | $4,764,960 | $4,428,447 | $2,164,806 | |
| P.J. Washington | $3,831,840 | $4,410,525 | $2,573,687 | |
| Rajon Rondo | $2,564,753 | $4,406,914 | $3,140,333 | |
| Will Barton | $12,960,000 | $4,348,966 | -$1,556,729 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $32,742,000 | $4,348,642 | -$10,434,560 | |
| Kyle Korver | $6,004,753 | $4,298,203 | $1,536,625 | |
| Chris Chiozza | $0 | $4,268,368 | $4,214,958 | |
| Kevin Huerter | $2,636,280 | $4,193,108 | $2,990,378 | |
| Ryan Broekhoff | $1,443,842 | $4,180,360 | $3,518,486 | |
| Kenrich Williams | $1,416,852 | $4,099,192 | $3,485,857 | |
| Doug McDermott | $7,333,334 | $4,098,468 | $830,293 | |
| Abdel Nader | $1,618,520 | $4,031,246 | $3,357,900 | |
| Mike Scott | $4,767,000 | $4,020,816 | $1,939,194 | |
| Derrick Walton | $1,527,375 | $3,988,669 | $3,375,334 | |
| Joe Ingles | $11,954,546 | $3,980,693 | -$1,308,509 | |
| Omari Spellman | $1,897,800 | $3,955,961 | $3,191,067 | |
| An?ejs Pasecniks | $482,144 | $3,944,311 | $3,819,956 | |
| Mo Bamba | $5,697,600 | $3,940,649 | $1,477,375 | |
| Larry Nance Jr. | $12,727,273 | $3,919,360 | -$1,689,097 | |
| Langston Galloway | $7,333,333 | $3,893,767 | $717,457 | |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,767,000 | $3,813,513 | $1,824,923 | |
| Cody Martin | $1,173,310 | $3,806,452 | $3,433,787 | |
| Kawhi Leonard | $32,742,000 | $3,741,310 | -$10,769,337 | |
| Terance Mann | $1,000,000 | $3,663,972 | $3,433,025 | |
| Chandler Hutchison | $2,332,320 | $3,643,395 | $2,823,771 | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $8,529,386 | $3,617,968 | $28,672 | |
| Raul Neto | $1,737,145 | $3,574,601 | $3,052,950 | |
| Jabari Parker | $6,500,000 | $3,564,361 | $909,858 | |
| Jeremy Lamb | $10,500,000 | $3,529,939 | -$904,213 | |
| Sterling Brown | $1,618,520 | $3,437,854 | $3,030,807 | |
| Tyler Herro | $3,640,200 | $3,313,359 | $2,054,904 | |
| Nicol? Melli | $3,902,439 | $3,268,418 | $1,912,446 | |
| Hassan Whiteside | $27,093,018 | $3,231,504 | -$8,515,238 | |
| J.J. Barea | $2,564,753 | $3,204,902 | $2,477,753 | |
| Carmelo Anthony | $2,159,029 | $3,198,508 | $2,656,307 | |
| Grant Williams | $2,379,840 | $3,162,852 | $2,537,558 | |
| Ante Äi?ic | $2,281,800 | $3,150,668 | $2,574,840 | |
| PJ Dozier | $183,115 | $3,113,831 | $3,496,370 | |
| Gary Payton II | $1,090,781 | $3,030,401 | $3,043,044 | |
| Cedi Osman | $2,907,143 | $2,976,637 | $2,198,272 | |
| Tyson Chandler | $2,564,753 | $2,951,291 | $2,337,956 | |
| Elie Okobo | $1,416,852 | $2,929,122 | $2,840,884 | |
| Kyrie Irving | $31,742,000 | $2,917,144 | -$10,774,864 | |
| Jordan McRae | $1,645,357 | $2,876,805 | $2,709,499 | |
| TomßÜ Satoransk² | $10,000,000 | $2,870,770 | -$1,043,177 | |
| Damyean Dotson | $1,618,520 | $2,863,266 | $2,714,079 | |
| J.J. Redick | $13,486,300 | $2,847,320 | -$2,620,665 | |
| Trey Lyles | $5,500,000 | $2,847,030 | $963,221 | |
| Bryn Forbes | $2,875,000 | $2,816,157 | $2,124,236 | |
| Alize Johnson | $1,416,852 | $2,801,299 | $2,770,425 | |
| Ryan Arcidiacono | $3,000,000 | $2,769,655 | $2,042,506 | |
| Cristiano Fel?cio | $8,156,500 | $2,708,436 | -$305,344 | |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $1,737,145 | $2,689,310 | $2,564,955 | |
| Juwan Morgan | $746,054 | $2,668,640 | $2,998,337 | |
| Norvel Pelle | $350,189 | $2,637,668 | $3,158,918 | |
| Tyus Jones | $8,408,000 | $2,624,088 | -$464,705 | |
| Dragan Bender | $1,868,556 | $2,613,230 | $2,464,043 | |
| Chimezie Metu | $1,416,852 | $2,566,958 | $2,641,250 | |
| Malik Beasley | $2,731,714 | $2,483,455 | $2,005,145 | |
| Thon Maker | $3,569,643 | $2,406,072 | $1,586,448 | |
| Rodions Kurucs | $1,699,236 | $2,369,336 | $2,405,589 | |
| Chris Clemons | $568,422 | $2,328,894 | $2,890,777 | |
| Dillon Brooks | $1,618,520 | $2,310,717 | $2,409,500 | |
| Wilson Chandler | $2,564,753 | $2,215,819 | $1,932,545 | |
| Miles Bridges | $3,755,400 | $2,128,380 | $1,350,015 | |
| Derrick Favors | $17,650,000 | $2,034,707 | -$4,937,160 | |
| Bruno Fernando | $1,400,000 | $2,014,694 | $2,344,391 | |
| Mario Hezonja | $1,737,145 | $1,870,834 | $2,113,789 | |
| Ricky Rubio | $16,190,476 | $1,828,602 | -$4,395,773 | |
| Rayjon Tucker | $578,573 | $1,811,713 | $2,601,138 | |
| Jaylen Nowell | $1,400,000 | $1,787,048 | $2,218,906 | |
| Markieff Morris | $3,991,808 | $1,777,847 | $1,050,698 | |
| Jared Dudley | $2,564,753 | $1,684,644 | $1,639,748 | |
| Danilo Gallinari | $22,615,559 | $1,672,829 | -$7,365,051 | |
| Darius Bazley | $2,284,800 | $1,633,701 | $1,737,302 | |
| Kelan Martin | $0 | $1,542,120 | $2,712,180 | |
| Kelly Olynyk | $11,667,885 | $1,532,201 | -$2,529,535 | |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $2,564,753 | $1,516,223 | $1,546,909 | |
| Allonzo Trier | $3,551,100 | $1,428,662 | $1,055,997 | |
| Jordan Bell | $1,870,564 | $1,426,382 | $1,808,921 | |
| Bruno Caboclo | $1,845,301 | $1,341,747 | $1,773,605 | |
| Robert Covington | $11,301,219 | $1,333,149 | -$2,474,707 | |
| Amir Coffey | $0 | $1,327,937 | $2,594,116 | |
| Yuta Watanabe | $0 | $1,327,937 | $2,594,116 | |
| Oshae Brissett | $0 | $1,258,045 | $2,555,590 | |
| Juan Hernang?mez | $3,321,030 | $1,160,756 | $1,011,569 | |
| Justin Jackson | $3,280,920 | $1,131,915 | $1,013,672 | |
| Melvin Frazier | $1,416,852 | $1,099,238 | $1,832,205 | |
| Edmond Sumner | $2,000,000 | $1,084,240 | $1,562,236 | |
| Elfrid Payton | $8,000,000 | $1,029,969 | -$1,160,325 | |
| Malcolm Miller | $1,588,231 | $972,790 | $1,685,593 | |
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | $1,445,697 | $944,589 | $1,734,014 | |
| Nassir Little | $2,105,520 | $882,337 | $1,403,587 | |
| Ish Smith | $5,853,659 | $825,081 | -$310,042 | |
| Vincent Poirier | $2,505,793 | $753,688 | $1,153,040 | |
| Wenyen Gabriel | $898,310 | $695,214 | $1,842,205 | |
| Robin Lopez | $4,767,000 | $665,468 | $89,640 | |
| Hamidou Diallo | $1,416,852 | $661,657 | $1,590,999 | |
| Joel Embiid | $27,504,630 | $616,380 | -$10,141,482 | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | $15,625,000 | $594,797 | -$4,822,107 | |
| Avery Bradley | $6,767,000 | $550,201 | -$871,447 | |
| Troy Daniels | $2,509,594 | $541,835 | $1,034,556 | |
| Lonzo Ball | $8,719,320 | $386,531 | -$1,837,817 | |
| Cody Zeller | $14,471,910 | $364,347 | -$4,431,660 | |
| Ed Davis | $4,767,000 | $355,041 | -$81,476 | |
| Goga Bitadze | $2,816,760 | $281,759 | $753,347 | |
| Taj Gibson | $9,800,000 | $223,779 | -$2,412,511 | |
| Yogi Ferrell | $3,150,000 | $196,400 | $556,745 | |
| Brandon Goodwin | $522,738 | $180,287 | $1,726,911 | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | $1,290,960 | $143,211 | $1,361,716 | |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,000,000 | $121,182 | $133,825 | |
| Terrance Ferguson | $2,475,840 | $85,181 | $797,984 | |
| Denzel Valentine | $3,377,569 | -$57,728 | $314,537 | |
| Khris Middleton | $30,603,448 | -$146,580 | -$11,952,715 | |
| Kyle Anderson | $9,073,050 | -$154,073 | -$2,294,557 | |
| Admiral Schofield | $898,310 | -$173,981 | $1,363,082 | |
| Justin James | $898,310 | -$234,342 | $1,329,810 | |
| T.J. Leaf | $2,813,280 | -$252,259 | $460,544 | |
| Evan Fournier | $17,000,000 | -$340,432 | -$5,954,694 | |
| Rodney McGruder | $4,629,630 | -$361,262 | -$414,672 | |
| Jake Layman | $3,581,986 | -$464,222 | -$1,271 | |
| Carsen Edwards | $1,228,026 | -$582,003 | $990,202 | |
| Anthony Tolliver | $2,854,556 | -$681,569 | $205,374 | |
| D?anan Musa | $1,911,600 | -$716,457 | $609,317 | |
| Mason Plumlee | $14,041,096 | -$718,191 | -$4,835,045 | |
| Markelle Fultz | $9,745,200 | -$781,628 | -$2,942,125 | |
| Frank Jackson | $1,618,520 | -$808,254 | $690,243 | |
| Treveon Graham | $1,678,854 | -$809,659 | $662,392 | |
| Tony Snell | $11,392,857 | -$859,394 | -$3,724,418 | |
| Ky Bowman | $350,189 | -$881,364 | $1,219,137 | |
| Trevor Ariza | $12,200,000 | -$925,067 | -$4,122,843 | |
| Josh Richardson | $10,100,000 | -$973,454 | -$3,207,090 | |
| Malik Monk | $4,028,400 | -$986,218 | -$489,347 | |
| Tim Frazier | $1,882,867 | -$997,576 | $467,252 | |
| D.J. Wilson | $2,961,120 | -$1,023,050 | -$30,683 | |
| Alfonzo McKinnie | $2,253,031 | -$1,057,888 | $267,886 | |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $17,000,000 | -$1,064,761 | -$6,353,963 | |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,855,800 | -$1,081,664 | -$913,276 | |
| Maurice Harkless | $11,511,234 | -$1,101,925 | -$3,911,231 | |
| Marcus Morris | $15,000,000 | -$1,120,921 | -$5,487,371 | |
| Steven Adams | $25,842,697 | -$1,181,018 | -$10,386,421 | |
| Taurean Prince | $3,481,986 | -$1,241,093 | -$384,625 | |
| John Henson | $9,732,396 | -$1,366,396 | -$3,258,718 | |
| Quinn Cook | $3,000,000 | -$1,370,260 | -$239,522 | |
| Meyers Leonard | $11,286,515 | -$1,444,162 | -$3,999,033 | |
| Amile Jefferson | $1,445,697 | -$1,445,697 | $416,427 | |
| Anfernee Simons | $2,149,560 | -$1,466,621 | $89,017 | |
| DeAndre' Bembry | $2,603,982 | -$1,492,221 | -$129,027 | |
| Lonnie Walker | $2,760,480 | -$1,584,930 | -$250,363 | |
| Josh Jackson | $7,059,480 | -$1,627,012 | -$2,202,840 | |
| Devin Booker | $27,250,000 | -$1,639,795 | -$11,270,872 | |
| Myles Turner | $18,000,000 | -$1,807,741 | -$7,212,287 | |
| Romeo Langford | $3,458,400 | -$1,964,471 | -$772,785 | |
| Jordan Clarkson | $13,437,500 | -$1,991,061 | -$5,265,805 | |
| Coby White | $5,307,120 | -$1,997,493 | -$1,620,645 | |
| Caleb Swanigan | $2,033,160 | -$2,033,160 | -$171,036 | |
| DeMar DeRozan | $27,739,975 | -$2,079,554 | -$11,733,167 | |
| Marko Guduric | $2,625,000 | -$2,081,753 | -$463,425 | |
| Terrence Ross | $12,500,000 | -$2,107,453 | -$4,909,237 | |
| Ty Jerome | $2,193,480 | -$2,193,480 | -$331,356 | |
| Dennis Schr÷der | $15,500,000 | -$2,261,494 | -$6,340,471 | |
| Patty Mills | $12,428,571 | -$2,287,964 | -$4,976,684 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $20,000,000 | -$2,294,179 | -$8,377,972 | |
| Isaiah Thomas | $2,320,044 | -$2,320,044 | -$457,920 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $33,296,296 | -$2,387,428 | -$14,396,409 | |
| LeBron James | $37,436,858 | -$2,474,468 | -$16,302,566 | |
| Marco Belinelli | $5,846,154 | -$2,491,367 | -$2,134,785 | |
| Danny Green | $14,634,146 | -$2,682,717 | -$6,184,087 | |
| Jerome Robinson | $3,567,720 | -$2,808,899 | -$1,287,315 | |
| Nikola Vucevic | $28,000,000 | -$3,326,082 | -$12,536,978 | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | $18,150,000 | -$3,336,961 | -$8,122,548 | |
| Vince Carter | $2,564,753 | -$3,361,515 | -$1,141,825 | |
| Zach LaVine | $19,500,000 | -$3,564,761 | -$8,853,963 | |
| Stanley Johnson | $3,623,000 | -$3,623,000 | -$1,760,876 | |
| Kevin Knox | $4,380,120 | -$3,644,647 | -$2,112,585 | |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | $2,964,840 | -$3,981,983 | -$1,663,392 | |
| Cory Joseph | $12,000,000 | -$4,364,365 | -$5,928,918 | |
| Kevon Looney | $4,464,286 | -$4,464,286 | -$2,602,162 | |
| Deonte Burton | $1,416,852 | -$4,481,321 | -$1,243,943 | |
| DeMarre Carroll | $7,653,754 | -$4,665,897 | -$4,144,647 | |
| E'Twaun Moore | $8,664,928 | -$4,823,397 | -$4,685,254 | |
| Goran Dragic | $19,217,900 | -$5,038,238 | -$9,539,582 | |
| Wayne Ellington | $7,804,878 | -$5,149,005 | -$4,478,769 | |
| Sekou Doumbouya | $3,285,120 | -$5,172,188 | -$2,463,197 | |
| Gorgui Dieng | $16,229,213 | -$5,226,310 | -$8,302,006 | |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $27,285,000 | -$5,478,884 | -$13,402,784 | |
| Tristan Thompson | $18,539,130 | -$5,539,330 | -$9,511,182 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $19,863,636 | -$5,599,027 | -$10,138,493 | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $26,000,000 | -$5,705,120 | -$12,950,817 | |
| Bradley Beal | $27,093,019 | -$5,706,251 | -$13,441,959 | |
| Courtney Lee | $12,759,670 | -$5,788,003 | -$7,054,584 | |
| Theo Pinson | $1,445,697 | -$5,791,671 | -$1,979,186 | |
| Thaddeus Young | $12,900,000 | -$5,803,839 | -$7,126,290 | |
| Cam Reddish | $4,245,720 | -$5,894,193 | -$3,292,277 | |
| Jacob Evans | $1,925,880 | -$6,047,062 | -$2,335,458 | |
| Marvin Williams | $15,962,599 | -$6,071,761 | -$8,648,391 | |
| Bismack Biyombo | $17,000,000 | -$6,176,064 | -$9,171,445 | |
| Jarrett Culver | $5,813,640 | -$6,193,050 | -$4,160,657 | |
| Serge Ibaka | $23,271,604 | -$6,322,305 | -$12,066,591 | |
| Gordon Hayward | $32,700,690 | -$6,499,480 | -$16,395,785 | |
| Rudy Gay | $14,000,000 | -$6,508,059 | -$8,008,126 | |
| Dwayne Bacon | $1,618,520 | -$6,521,670 | -$2,459,139 | |
| Ian Mahinmi | $15,450,051 | -$6,643,735 | -$8,733,659 | |
| De'Andre Hunter | $7,068,360 | -$6,688,950 | -$4,997,096 | |
| Dante Exum | $9,600,000 | -$6,868,245 | -$6,232,063 | |
| Jordan Poole | $1,964,760 | -$6,996,941 | -$2,876,504 | |
| James Johnson | $15,349,400 | -$7,132,792 | -$8,958,071 | |
| Kemba Walker | $32,742,000 | -$7,558,632 | -$16,998,156 | |
| Solomon Hill | $13,258,781 | -$7,586,916 | -$8,270,180 | |
| Julius Randle | $18,000,000 | -$7,915,982 | -$10,579,306 | |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $9,258,000 | -$7,930,063 | -$6,663,884 | |
| Chris Paul | $38,506,482 | -$8,115,705 | -$19,892,180 | |
| Bobby Portis | $15,000,000 | -$8,118,874 | -$9,344,823 | |
| Terry Rozier | $19,894,737 | -$8,512,424 | -$11,758,389 | |
| Al Horford | $28,000,000 | -$8,735,010 | -$15,518,518 | |
| Matthew Dellavedova | $9,607,500 | -$8,768,803 | -$7,283,065 | |
| Jeff Teague | $19,000,000 | -$8,871,670 | -$11,554,881 | |
| Harrison Barnes | $24,147,727 | -$8,876,456 | -$13,867,686 | |
| Paul George | $33,005,556 | -$9,102,698 | -$17,967,562 | |
| Marc Gasol | $25,595,700 | -$9,298,297 | -$14,750,028 | |
| Andre Drummond | $27,093,019 | -$9,480,387 | -$15,522,359 | |
| Reggie Jackson | $18,020,981 | -$9,539,322 | -$11,483,549 | |
| Gary Harris | $17,839,286 | -$9,729,388 | -$11,506,778 | |
| RJ Barrett | $7,839,960 | -$9,974,144 | -$7,154,253 | |
| Andre Iguodala | $17,185,185 | -$10,355,797 | -$11,558,527 | |
| Tobias Harris | $31,034,483 | -$10,451,466 | -$17,826,471 | |
| Eric Gordon | $14,057,730 | -$10,737,889 | -$10,365,624 | |
| Dennis Smith Jr. | $4,463,640 | -$10,790,867 | -$6,089,247 | |
| Jrue Holiday | $26,131,111 | -$10,848,956 | -$15,845,070 | |
| Darius Garland | $6,400,920 | -$11,667,651 | -$7,441,954 | |
| Draymond Green | $18,539,130 | -$12,424,445 | -$13,306,435 | |
| Kevin Love | $28,900,000 | -$12,680,203 | -$18,097,107 | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $13,333,334 | -$12,790,087 | -$11,171,759 | |
| CJ McCollum | $27,556,959 | -$13,556,713 | -$17,977,540 | |
| Paul Millsap | $30,500,000 | -$14,096,078 | -$19,595,612 | |
| Tyler Johnson | $19,458,123 | -$15,167,866 | -$15,231,100 | |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $13,810,763 | -$15,722,992 | -$13,002,709 | |
| Brandon Knight | $15,643,750 | -$16,599,864 | -$14,308,661 | |
| Kent Bazemore | $19,269,662 | -$17,160,586 | -$16,244,962 | |
| D'Angelo Russell | $27,285,000 | -$17,723,857 | -$20,152,528 | |
| Allen Crabbe | $17,818,456 | -$18,464,479 | -$16,312,437 | |
| Nicolas Batum | $25,565,217 | -$19,046,256 | -$20,109,674 | |
| Andrew Wiggins | $27,504,630 | -$19,094,365 | -$21,006,552 | |
| Mike Conley | $32,511,623 | -$19,797,337 | -$23,641,058 | |
| Russell Westbrook | $38,178,000 | -$20,565,368 | -$26,607,340 | |
| Victor Oladipo | $21,000,000 | -$21,000,000 | -$19,137,876 | |
| Evan Turner | $18,606,557 | -$22,380,693 | -$18,824,834 | |
| Blake Griffin | $34,234,964 | -$35,562,901 | -$33,104,833 |
Rookie Contract Value
Notice that the most valuable players, judged based on win shares against salary, are all rookies. Every single one of them. This indicates that the most valuable players to have on a team are rookies who perform well. If your goal is to maximize win shares, then you DON’T have to hit homeruns with every rookie pick. You only need to pick solid players. Guys like OG Anunoby, VanVleet, and Brandon Clarke have all added more value relative to their salary this year than Giannis. These are all good players, but none of them are Luka. You don’t need a generational talent to benefit from the draft.
Another observation is that, after a long string of rookies adding lots of value above their contract, you get young superstars on their second contract. The second contract in the NBA is still more cost controlled than for older players. Giannis and Anthony Davis still add huge value over their contract value, but once they sign their super-max they may not be that large of a value.
For instance, Khris Middleton is a perennial all-star but his contract is almost exactly correctly valued for his abilities. That is, the Bucks are paying exactly for what they get with Middleton. If a team pays exactly for what they get, they will expect to get an average number of win shares and so an average number of wins. To be successful you need to have players add value over their salary. You need great players playing for less than they deserve.
This is exactly how the Warriors dynasty got started. In 2015-2016, Steph Curry made about $11 million. That year Steph added something like 18 wins. Steph being such a good player on such a cheap contract allowed the Warriors to spend their other money elsewhere. It would be like turning Danny Green into Steph Curry.
Conclusions
In this article we tried to come up with a valuation system for NBA players. We used two models to predict how much an NBA player is worth based on their performance. In doing so, we were able to determine the most valuable trade assets and the players with the best bang-for-your-buck contract. This analysis revealed the overwhelming importance of rookie contract control and superstar second contract control on a team’s chance of winning.
