Using Average NFL Career Length for 2020 Fantasy Predictions
We want to study the average career length of NFL players by position. The average NFL career length is important as a fan as well as in fantasy football. If we were to boil down fantasy football to one idea it would be ‘predict how many yards/TDs this player will get this year’.
One of the most important factors in answering this question is the player’s age. Young players can generally be expected to improve their performance year to year. Older players can be expected to perform worse as the years go on. In this article we investigate the impact of age on performance. In fantasy predictions are the entire game.
The idea that young players get better while old players get worse is vague. If you have been reading this blog you know that we don’t like ill-defined things like ‘young players’ ad ‘old players’. We like precise numbers here. It would be much more beneficial to say: ‘This player is 24 years old and entering his 3rd year and based on past data we can expect an average increase in production of ___% over last year.’
If you are only reading for the fantasy predictions and skip all the commentary, do read this. The 2020 fantasy predictions I make are essentially age-adjusted numbers relative to that player’s yards/game from last year. Some players may appear arbitrarily high (Bo Scarborough), but that is only because they performed well last year relative to their age. Essentially these predictions adjust for age and injuries but do NOT account for whether a player will see increased/decreased competition. It is up to the user to recognize which players situations may improve/worsen.
Receivers: Average NFL Career Length
Let’s start simply. We took every single receiving season since 1990 and recorded (a) the player’s age in the current season and (b) the % change in receiving yards per game relative to the prior year. Note 1: going back to 1990 provides a sufficiently large data set to extract information while avoiding the possibility of corrupting our results because of the difference in the way football is played now versus then. Note 2: Using yards/game instead of yards helps control against injuries and helps to decrease variance.
What did we find? In doing this we ignore insignificant players (<10 yards/game). We found that receivers tend to peak at about 25 years of age and slowly decline after that. Here is the average percent change in receiving yards from the prior year versus the player’s age.
This plot tells us that we expect a player to increase their receiving yards until their age 25 season. Then, starting at age 26 we begin to see a small decrease in production. We also point out that this chart indicates smaller and smaller improvements until 25. Then, the decline begins slowly but increases more rapidly again as age increases.
Receiver Age Drop-off
We can also visualize the ‘peak’ by making a cumulative change plot. For example, the chart above indicates about a 35% expected increase in yards from the rookie season to the second season. Then it indicates roughly a 25% increase going into the third season. But that 25% increase is on top of the second year yards which already saw an increase over the rookie season. Therefore in the third year we expect 135% x 125%= 169% of the rookie season yards. Doing this for every year, we can see the expected shape of a receiver’s career. See the plot below.
This shows the age 25 peak much more clearly followed by a steady decline. By the time a receiver turns 31, we expect their performance to match their rookie year data. We can use all this data to ‘predict’ yards for the upcoming year using last year’s data and the player’s age. We can also use the above plot to make conclusions about the average NFL career length for receivers.
And we will later in this article. First, though, let’s do the same for running backs.
Running Backs: Average NFL Career Length
Doing the exact same analysis as above, we can look at the typical career for an NFL running back. Then, we can infer the average NFL career length based on these plots. The common consensus is that running backs peak much sooner and consequently drop off much sooner. Does the data support that running backs have a shorter average NFL career length?
In fact, the data does support that claim. But, that is easier to observe on the cumulative change plot.
I offer two insights on the difference between receivers and running backs. First, running backs do indeed peak and trail off sooner than receivers. The RB peak is at 24. By age 28 running backs return below their rookie numbers. For receivers the peak was at 25 while they had until age 31 to return to their rookie numbers.
Second, the peak for running backs is far lower when compared to their rookie numbers. I mean, we only expect a running back to increase on their rookie performance by about 145% at their peak. Receivers, on the other hand, reach almost double their rookie numbers at their peak.
These two observations together support the idea that a running back’s career starts more quickly, peaks more quickly, and ends more quickly. Another way, running backs do indeed have a shorter average NFL career length
Fantasy Predictions: 2020 Receiving Yards
The entirety of the above conversation should be interesting even outside the context of fantasy football. However, we can use this data to make fantasy predictions. Even though fantasy points includes more than just receiving yards, predicting Yards/Game is probably the most stable way to predict success. This is because Yards/Game is injury independent and touchdowns have a much higher variance season to season. It is fairly safe to bet that if receiver A has more yards/game than receiver B, then receiver A probably has more fantasy points than receiver B. Though I have been weary to make fantasy predictions, this is my first forray.
Using the above data we can predict yards for the upcoming season. Let’s take Michael Thomas as an example. Thomas is entering his age 27 season. At this point in their career, a receiver can expect an 8% decrease in yards relative to their age 26 results. This would give us an expectation of about 99 yards per game or a 16 game total of 1584 yards.
I do offer one observation here, though. It is certainly up for debate whether or not the important factor is age or years of experience. Though he is 27 years old, Michael Thomas is only entering his fifth season. Using the fact that Thomas is entering his fifth season and that receiver’s usually increase their yards by 4% at this point, we could conceivably predict Michael Thomas to catch 111 yards/game this year which is a 16 game total of 1776 yards. I won’t offer which side of the age/years in the league debate I think is correct. The answer is probably a mix of both. But, I wanted to point out these considerations.
The data table we include below is our predicted yards/game for receivers going into 2020. Only those receivers who played a sufficient number of games in 2019 show up here. So, these predictions don’t include rookies nor players who missed the entirety of 2019. Note: both receivers and running backs will show up in this list.
Age/Injury Adjusted 2020 Receiving Predictions
| Player | Yards_per_Game_Prediction | Season_Yards_Predictions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 104 | 1666 | |
| Michael Thomas | 99 | 1585 | |
| D.J. Moore | 98 | 1562 | |
| Michael Gallup | 86 | 1384 | |
| A.J. Brown | 82 | 1310 | |
| Mike Evans | 82 | 1309 | |
| Julio Jones | 78 | 1245 | |
| DJ Chark | 73 | 1176 | |
| Davante Adams | 73 | 1162 | |
| Courtland Sutton | 72 | 1154 | |
| Amari Cooper | 71 | 1129 | |
| D.K. Metcalf | 70 | 1122 | |
| Stefon Diggs | 69 | 1108 | |
| George Kittle | 69 | 1106 | |
| DeVante Parker | 69 | 1105 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | 69 | 1099 | |
| Kenny Golladay | 68 | 1094 | |
| Terry McLaurin | 68 | 1090 | |
| Tyreek Hill | 68 | 1089 | |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 68 | 1086 | |
| Cooper Kupp | 67 | 1067 | |
| Preston Williams | 67 | 1067 | |
| Robert Woods | 66 | 1058 | |
| Allen Robinson | 66 | 1054 | |
| Darius Slayton | 66 | 1054 | |
| Keenan Allen | 66 | 1048 | |
| Austin Ekeler | 64 | 1030 | |
| Travis Kelce | 64 | 1029 | |
| Jarvis Landry | 64 | 1026 | |
| John Brown | 64 | 1022 | |
| Mike Williams | 63 | 1014 | |
| Calvin Ridley | 63 | 1012 | |
| Darren Waller | 63 | 1001 | |
| Mark Andrews | 62 | 994 | |
| Tyler Boyd | 62 | 993 | |
| John Ross | 60 | 961 | |
| Auden Tate | 60 | 955 | |
| Christian Kirk | 60 | 954 | |
| Julian Edelman | 59 | 939 | |
| Deebo Samuel | 58 | 936 | |
| Will Fuller | 58 | 926 | |
| Tyler Lockett | 58 | 924 | |
| Austin Hooper | 57 | 920 | |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 57 | 905 | |
| Evan Engram | 55 | 887 | |
| Zach Ertz | 55 | 883 | |
| Marvin Jones | 54 | 867 | |
| Golden Tate | 54 | 857 | |
| James Washington | 54 | 857 | |
| Sterling Shepard | 53 | 847 | |
| Marquise Brown | 52 | 832 | |
| Hunter Henry | 52 | 826 | |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 50 | 805 | |
| Randall Cobb | 50 | 799 | |
| Hunter Renfrow | 48 | 773 | |
| Jamison Crowder | 48 | 766 | |
| Will Dissly | 48 | 764 | |
| Diontae Johnson | 46 | 744 | |
| Mecole Hardman | 46 | 729 | |
| Tyler Higbee | 45 | 720 | |
| Robby Anderson | 45 | 716 | |
| DeSean Jackson | 45 | 713 | |
| Alshon Jeffery | 44 | 709 | |
| Sammy Watkins | 44 | 707 | |
| Noah Fant | 44 | 700 | |
| Cole Beasley | 43 | 695 | |
| Curtis Samuel | 43 | 686 | |
| Chris Conley | 42 | 678 | |
| Breshad Perriman | 42 | 677 | |
| Saquon Barkley | 42 | 672 | |
| Dallas Goedert | 42 | 672 | |
| T.Y. Hilton | 42 | 671 | |
| Corey Davis | 42 | 665 | |
| Tyrell Williams | 41 | 650 | |
| Dede Westbrook | 40 | 647 | |
| Miles Sanders | 40 | 634 | |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 40 | 634 | |
| Alvin Kamara | 40 | 632 | |
| Jared Cook | 39 | 624 | |
| Anthony Miller _ 2 | 39 | 623 | |
| Dalvin Cook | 38 | 615 | |
| Brandin Cooks | 38 | 612 | |
| Duke Williams | 38 | 610 | |
| T.J. Hockenson | 38 | 610 | |
| Adam Thielen | 38 | 605 | |
| Kenny Stills | 38 | 604 | |
| Greg Ward | 38 | 602 | |
| James White | 38 | 601 | |
| Kaden Smith | 37 | 594 | |
| Mike Gesicki | 37 | 591 | |
| Kareem Hunt | 37 | 591 | |
| Leonard Fournette | 36 | 578 | |
| Zach Pascal | 36 | 577 | |
| Jason Witten | 36 | 574 | |
| Keke Coutee | 35 | 563 | |
| Taylor Gabriel | 34 | 543 | |
| Danny Amendola | 34 | 539 | |
| Josh Gordon | 33 | 536 | |
| Isaiah Ford | 33 | 534 | |
| Marcus Johnson | 33 | 526 | |
| Greg Olsen | 32 | 509 | |
| Eric Ebron | 31 | 501 | |
| O.J. Howard | 31 | 498 | |
| Chris Thompson _ 1 | 31 | 497 | |
| Allen Lazard | 31 | 495 | |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 31 | 494 | |
| Demaryius Thomas | 31 | 488 | |
| Russell Gage | 30 | 488 | |
| Nelson Agholor | 30 | 485 | |
| Damiere Byrd | 30 | 480 | |
| Gerald Everett | 30 | 477 | |
| Tarik Cohen | 30 | 473 | |
| Jacob Hollister | 29 | 467 | |
| Mohamed Sanu | 29 | 464 | |
| Alex Erickson | 29 | 462 | |
| Adam Humphries | 29 | 458 | |
| Jonnu Smith | 28 | 456 | |
| Dawson Knox | 28 | 453 | |
| Aaron Jones | 28 | 450 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 27 | 436 | |
| Le'Veon Bell | 27 | 430 | |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 27 | 429 | |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 27 | 428 | |
| Demarcus Robinson | 27 | 426 | |
| Marvin Hall | 27 | 426 | |
| Dan Arnold | 26 | 422 | |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 26 | 422 | |
| Jakobi Meyers | 26 | 419 | |
| Phillip Dorsett | 26 | 417 | |
| James Conner | 26 | 417 | |
| Allen Hurns | 26 | 411 | |
| Devonta Freeman | 26 | 410 | |
| Jack Doyle | 25 | 405 | |
| Tim Patrick | 25 | 401 | |
| Kelvin Harmon | 25 | 399 | |
| Scott Miller _ 2 | 25 | 399 | |
| Devin Smith | 25 | 395 | |
| Tyler Eifert | 25 | 394 | |
| David Johnson | 25 | 394 | |
| Steven Sims | 24 | 386 | |
| Ronald Jones II | 24 | 385 | |
| Vernon Davis | 24 | 383 | |
| Delanie Walker | 24 | 382 | |
| Jaylen Samuels | 24 | 381 | |
| Albert Wilson | 24 | 378 | |
| Duke Johnson | 24 | 377 | |
| Jimmy Graham | 23 | 376 | |
| Kenyan Drake | 23 | 374 | |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 23 | 372 | |
| Kendrick Bourne | 23 | 371 | |
| Olabisi Johnson | 23 | 366 | |
| Jordan Akins | 23 | 365 | |
| Melvin Gordon | 23 | 363 | |
| Parris Campbell | 23 | 362 | |
| David Moore | 22 | 357 | |
| Ryan Griffin | 22 | 356 | |
| Nyheim Hines | 22 | 350 | |
| Blake Jarwin | 22 | 347 | |
| Dontrelle Inman | 22 | 346 | |
| Paul Richardson | 21 | 343 | |
| Josh Reynolds | 21 | 338 | |
| Bennie Fowler | 21 | 334 | |
| Tajae Sharpe | 21 | 333 | |
| Keelan Cole | 21 | 332 | |
| KeeSean Johnson | 20 | 327 | |
| Kalif Raymond | 20 | 323 | |
| Devin Singletary | 20 | 322 | |
| Hayden Hurst | 20 | 321 | |
| Kerryon Johnson | 20 | 317 | |
| Tommy Sweeney | 20 | 315 | |
| Ryan Izzo | 20 | 315 | |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | 20 | 314 | |
| Joe Mixon | 20 | 314 | |
| Rex Burkhead | 19 | 310 | |
| Pharoh Cooper | 19 | 310 | |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 19 | 308 | |
| Boston Scott | 19 | 308 | |
| Kyle Rudolph | 19 | 307 | |
| T.J. Yeldon | 19 | 304 | |
| Vyncint Smith | 19 | 303 | |
| Jamaal Williams | 19 | 300 | |
| N'Keal Harry | 19 | 299 | |
| Marquise Goodwin | 19 | 299 | |
| Jalen Richard | 19 | 297 | |
| Willie Snead | 19 | 296 | |
| Nick Boyle | 18 | 295 | |
| Ben Watson | 18 | 294 | |
| Keelan Doss | 18 | 291 | |
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 288 | |
| Darren Fells | 18 | 287 | |
| Malik Turner | 18 | 286 | |
| Vance McDonald | 18 | 282 | |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 18 | 281 | |
| Royce Freeman | 17 | 280 | |
| Cody Latimer | 17 | 280 | |
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 277 | |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 17 | 276 | |
| Trey Quinn | 17 | 274 | |
| Geronimo Allison | 17 | 273 | |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 17 | 272 | |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 17 | 272 | |
| Damien Williams | 17 | 271 | |
| Chris Carson | 17 | 269 | |
| Cameron Brate | 17 | 269 | |
| DeAndre Washington | 17 | 268 | |
| Foster Moreau | 17 | 267 | |
| Damion Ratley | 16 | 255 | |
| Jarius Wright | 15 | 248 | |
| Zay Jones | 15 | 239 | |
| Laquon Treadwell | 15 | 235 | |
| Seth Roberts | 15 | 234 | |
| Rhett Ellison | 15 | 233 | |
| Darrel Williams | 14 | 231 | |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 231 | |
| Jakeem Grant | 14 | 229 | |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 14 | 229 | |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 14 | 229 | |
| Jaron Brown | 14 | 227 | |
| Chester Rogers | 14 | 227 | |
| Patrick Laird | 14 | 226 | |
| Anthony Firkser | 14 | 226 | |
| C.J. Uzomah | 14 | 222 | |
| Mark Ingram _ 2 | 14 | 221 | |
| Andy Isabella | 14 | 220 | |
| Jake Kumerow | 14 | 219 | |
| Miles Boykin | 14 | 217 | |
| J.D. McKissic | 13 | 214 | |
| Latavius Murray | 13 | 212 | |
| Charles Clay | 13 | 212 | |
| Taysom Hill | 13 | 212 | |
| Todd Gurley | 13 | 210 | |
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 209 | |
| Josh Hill | 13 | 204 | |
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 202 | |
| Brandon Zylstra | 12 | 195 | |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 194 | |
| Maxx Williams | 12 | 192 | |
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 189 | |
| Phillip Lindsay | 12 | 186 | |
| JJ Arcega-Whiteside | 12 | 185 | |
| Tavon Austin | 11 | 183 | |
| Javon Wims | 11 | 177 | |
| Seth Devalve | 11 | 172 | |
| Richie James | 11 | 171 | |
| Justin Hardy | 11 | 169 | |
| Deon Cain | 10 | 167 | |
| Matt LaCosse | 10 | 167 | |
| Justin Watson _ 2 | 10 | 165 | |
| Dante Pettis | 10 | 165 | |
| Hale Hentges | 10 | 164 | |
| Marcell Ateman | 10 | 160 | |
| Ryquell Armstead | 10 | 157 | |
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 157 | |
| Byron Pringle | 10 | 156 | |
| Wayne Gallman | 10 | 155 | |
| Jaeden Graham | 10 | 155 | |
| Matt Breida | 10 | 153 | |
| Nick Vannett | 10 | 153 | |
| Logan Thomas | 9 | 150 | |
| DeAndre Carter | 9 | 149 | |
| Ian Thomas | 9 | 149 | |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 148 | |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 142 | |
| Chase Edmonds | 9 | 141 | |
| Robert Tonyan | 9 | 138 | |
| Demetrius Harris | 9 | 137 | |
| C.J. Ham | 9 | 137 | |
| Ty Johnson | 8 | 136 | |
| Jesse James | 8 | 135 | |
| Nick O'Leary | 8 | 127 | |
| Marcedes Lewis | 8 | 121 | |
| Braxton Berrios | 7 | 119 | |
| Trevor Davis | 7 | 117 | |
| Mack Hollins | 7 | 115 | |
| Jeff Heuerman | 7 | 114 | |
| Adrian Peterson _ 2 | 7 | 113 | |
| Peyton Barber | 7 | 109 | |
| Brandon Bolden | 7 | 107 | |
| Derek Carrier | 6 | 98 | |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 61 |
Fantasy Predictions: Rushing Yards for 2020
Doing the exact same thing as above but for rushing yards, we get the following predictions for rushing yards in 2020 based on player’s ages and 2019 stats. I need to add a few comments to the following table. This is prediction based solely on the player’s yards/game last year and their age. I take nothing into account about roster composition. For instance, I predict Bo Scarborough to rush for about 1100 yards. This is because Bo went for 62 yards per game last year while Kerryon Johnson was hurt. However, Bo is quite far down the depth chart this year because Kerryon is back AND because the Lion’s drafted DeAndre Swift. That being said, given the opportunity to play all 16 games, Bo might get 1100.
Age/Injury Adjusted 2020 Rushing Predictions
| Player | Yards_per_Game_Prediction | Season_Yards_Predictions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 120 | 1918 | |
| Lamar Jackson | 100 | 1603 | |
| Derrick Henry | 98 | 1560 | |
| Nick Chubb | 97 | 1550 | |
| Saquon Barkley | 96 | 1539 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | 95 | 1517 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 88 | 1408 | |
| Marlon Mack | 85 | 1364 | |
| Dalvin Cook | 84 | 1346 | |
| Devin Singletary | 80 | 1288 | |
| Leonard Fournette | 80 | 1275 | |
| Chris Carson | 78 | 1246 | |
| Joe Mixon | 78 | 1243 | |
| David Montgomery | 69 | 1108 | |
| Bo Scarbrough | 69 | 1099 | |
| Aaron Jones | 64 | 1030 | |
| Miles Sanders | 64 | 1019 | |
| Kerryon Johnson | 63 | 1005 | |
| Derrius Guice | 61 | 977 | |
| Carlos Hyde | 60 | 967 | |
| Phillip Lindsay | 60 | 960 | |
| Sony Michel | 59 | 946 | |
| Alvin Kamara | 59 | 945 | |
| Mark Ingram _ 2 | 57 | 909 | |
| Ronald Jones II | 56 | 902 | |
| Kenyan Drake | 55 | 887 | |
| Todd Gurley | 54 | 868 | |
| Jordan Howard | 50 | 798 | |
| Matt Breida | 50 | 796 | |
| Alexander Mattison | 48 | 771 | |
| James Conner | 48 | 770 | |
| Melvin Gordon | 47 | 750 | |
| Jeff Driskel | 46 | 740 | |
| Gus Edwards | 46 | 738 | |
| Le'Veon Bell | 46 | 736 | |
| Adrian Peterson _ 2 | 45 | 714 | |
| Benny Snell Jr. | 44 | 711 | |
| Kyler Murray | 42 | 678 | |
| Raheem Mostert | 42 | 675 | |
| Devonta Freeman | 41 | 655 | |
| Rashaad Penny | 40 | 647 | |
| Damien Williams | 40 | 633 | |
| Tony Pollard | 38 | 605 | |
| Austin Ekeler | 36 | 578 | |
| Latavius Murray | 36 | 576 | |
| Mark Walton | 36 | 573 | |
| Tevin Coleman | 36 | 571 | |
| Josh Allen | 35 | 558 | |
| Jamaal Williams | 34 | 546 | |
| Royce Freeman | 34 | 542 | |
| LeSean McCoy | 31 | 499 | |
| Justin Jackson | 30 | 474 | |
| Deshaun Watson | 29 | 457 | |
| Brian Hill | 28 | 447 | |
| Peyton Barber | 28 | 446 | |
| Gardner Minshew II | 27 | 430 | |
| Daniel Jones | 27 | 428 | |
| Chase Edmonds | 25 | 408 | |
| Jonathan Williams | 25 | 397 | |
| Myles Gaskin | 24 | 379 | |
| Duke Johnson | 24 | 377 | |
| Kareem Hunt | 23 | 371 | |
| Boston Scott | 23 | 370 | |
| Frank Gore | 23 | 368 | |
| David Johnson | 23 | 367 | |
| Kerrith Whyte Jr | 22 | 356 | |
| DeAndre Washington | 22 | 356 | |
| Ty Johnson | 21 | 340 | |
| Rex Burkhead | 21 | 336 | |
| Jordan Wilkins | 21 | 333 | |
| Russell Wilson | 19 | 298 | |
| Mike Boone | 18 | 283 | |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18 | 281 | |
| Justice Hill | 18 | 280 | |
| Marcus Mariota | 17 | 271 | |
| Malcolm Brown | 17 | 268 | |
| Patrick Mahomes | 16 | 259 | |
| Dak Prescott | 16 | 255 | |
| Ito Smith | 16 | 251 | |
| Bilal Powell | 15 | 246 | |
| James White | 15 | 245 | |
| Jameis Winston | 15 | 237 | |
| Darrell Henderson | 14 | 225 | |
| Dwayne Haskins | 14 | 224 | |
| Tarik Cohen | 14 | 221 | |
| Jaylen Samuels | 14 | 219 | |
| Nyheim Hines | 14 | 218 | |
| Ryan Tannehill | 13 | 215 | |
| Jacoby Brissett | 13 | 213 | |
| Carson Wentz | 13 | 212 | |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 12 | 196 | |
| Darrel Williams | 12 | 195 | |
| Dion Lewis | 12 | 189 | |
| J.D. McKissic | 12 | 188 | |
| Kalen Ballage | 12 | 187 | |
| Darwin Thompson | 12 | 187 | |
| Patrick Laird | 12 | 186 | |
| Deebo Samuel | 12 | 185 | |
| Chris Thompson | 11 | 181 | |
| Jeff Wilson | 11 | 174 | |
| Wayne Gallman | 10 | 167 | |
| Travis Homer | 10 | 155 | |
| Giovani Bernard | 9 | 147 | |
| Baker Mayfield | 9 | 146 | |
| Kyle Allen | 9 | 143 | |
| Curtis Samuel | 9 | 142 | |
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 141 | |
| Jalen Richard | 8 | 133 | |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 8 | 127 | |
| Ryquell Armstead | 7 | 118 | |
| Matt Ryan | 7 | 117 | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 112 | |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 107 | |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 106 | |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 95 | |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 89 |
How to Use These Fantasy Predictions
The above numbers aren’t necessarily fantasy predictions. The correct way to interpret the above numbers is as follows. If nothing about a player’s situation changes, then the numbers above are our best prediction for the upcoming season taking into account only past performance and age. One would need to use their own discretion about how to fade players based on decreased opportunities. In fact, the best way to use these numbers is as a tool, an individual component, to use in ranking players. The above numbers are unbiased measurements of how well a player has actually performed in the past adjusted for their age.
Here is an example of how I may use it. ESPN currently has Chris Godwin ranked as the WR6 and DJ Moore as the WR8. However, the above numbers suggest that based on their age and past performance they should be the WR1 and WR3, respectively. After taking into account situational changes of the Bucs and Panthers from 2019 to 2020, I may choose to rank Godwin near the WR3 and Moore as the WR6. That is, I combined the age-based predictions above with knowledge of each player’s situations to slightly alter the ‘consensus’ ranking of these two players.
Conclusion
In this article we have looked at the impact age has on NFL players. In both the receiving and rushing categories, we have studied the average NFL career length. We have shown that the average NFL career length differs by position. In particular, running backs get started quicker and end quicker. Moreover, we have used our knowledge of expected change in yards based on age to make fantasy predictions. In particular, we predict both receiving and rushing yards in the 2020 season based on yards per game in 2019.
