George Kittle Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023

Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count. 

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George Kittle  Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors

I’ve written that I think Darren Waller is overrated as the TE4 in ESPN’s rankings. Well, here we’re going to see that I think Kittle is underrated as the TE5. And the four factors analysis backs this up nicely.

For the last four seasons in a row, George Kittle has averaged between 9 and 10 fantasy points per game.  This would seem to indicate consistent output from Kittle. However, in each of the last four seasons, Kittle has failed to play the full set of games, always missing at least 1 or 2. This is why Kitle has earned his 4/10 consistency rating. Not terrible, but definitely not good.

On the other hand, when it comes to tight ends, few have been as productive as Kittle over the last few years. I think only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have higher pedigree scores than Kittle’s 9/10. 

Even better for fans of George Kittle is his 7/10 trend score. He had a strong finish to the last season which boosted his performance in this category. However, because Kittle has been so consistently between 9 and 10 fantasy points per game for four years, I tend to think he’ll give us more of the same rather than improved performance as the trend score would suggest.

Interestingly, these factors all combine to a 7.5/10 consensus ranking. Usually with a trend score greater than 5, we’re used to seeing consensus rankings above pedigree scores. For Kittle this isn’t the case. 

And I’m not really sure why. 

George Kittle Stats Analysis

One potential reason for analysts to be low on George Kittle is how crowded the offense is in San Francisco. Last year, they brought in McCaffrey. They already had Deebo Samuel and Brandon AIyuk. There could be some concern that there are too many mouths to feed in SF.

However, this problem existed last year too especially in the second half of the year after they traded for McCaffrey. And, if you look closely at the stats, after McCaffrey arrived is when George Kittle put up his best stats of the year. I think the too many mouths problem in San Francisco is a myth. 

Fantasy Football Four Factors Explained

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