Darren Waller Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Darren Waller Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Darren Waller is one of the reasons I think the four factors approach to fantasy football is so useful. Waller is a complicated player and breaking down his abilities into categories will help you understand why his profile is so interesting.
Darren Waller is being drafted as the fourth tight end off the board, behind the two big guys Kelce and Andrews and the surging TJ Hockenson. The experts give him a consensus ranking of 5.5/10. Overall this is a pretty good score.
The problem is, his stats and the other four factors really don’t back this up. Let’s start with pedigree. Darren Waller earns an abysmal 0.5 pedigree score. He has been unhealthy the last two seasons, playing only about half the games. Even in those games he played, though, his per-game production has been steadily declining as well. People might argue his pedigree should be much higher. But 3 years ago is forever in the fantasy world.
Typically with a really low pedigree, you would hope a player had a strong trend score. On the contrary, Darren Waller puts up yet another abysmal 0.5 trend score. He went from over 7 points a game in 2021 with a strong start to the season to 6 points per game in 2022 with a weak end to the season. Waller is going the wrong way.
And, to make matters worse, his consistency is pretty terrible too. The last two years, Darren Waller hasn’t been able to stay on the field at all. Even when he is on the field, he has been up and down in performance.
Overall, Darren Waller’s four factors profile is pretty questionable and I am wary of his TE4 ranking.
Darren Waller Stats Analysis
Usually when the four factors don’t make sense, I look to external reasons to understand why a player is ranked so high or low. For example, when ranking Alexander Mattison, his four factors don’t support his consensus ranking. You have to understand that getting the starting job in Minnesota isn’t and can’t be reflected in data alone.
For Darren Waller, though, the only change is moving to the Giants. And I don’t see why this should be a big boost, if any. If I am missing something, please go ahead and draft him at TE4. Otherwise, I think I ‘ll pass.
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