Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Stats: Fantasy Four Factors 2023
Fantasy Four Factors capture four key aspects of a player’s upcoming season: consensus rankings, pedigree and past success, performance trends over more recent games, and consistency both in performance and snap count.
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Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Fantasy Football Four Factors
Tua’s consistency score is interesting. Remember that consistency is a mix of snap percentage/games played and variance in fantasy points. In the first category, Tua has actually been really bad. He hasn’t played a full season yet in his 3 years and is constantly missing time due to, more often than not, concussions.
But on the other hand, when Tua Tagovailoa has played, his fantasy output has been quite consistent. Aside from the Cincinnati game where he left early last year, Tua had no duds, no games under 10 points. This all leads to his 6.5/10 consistency score. Good overall, but poor for QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa’s pedigree score is another matter, though I think the 1.5/10 our system gives Tua is a bit harsh. To compute pedigree, we look at where a player finished in his position group. Because Tua Tagovailoa only played 13 games each of the last two seasons, his numbers in this category may be artificially low.
But, still, the 1.5/10 DOES reflect the fantasy output he has given you over the last two years. Take it however you want to.
Tua has had a slightly positive trend over the last two seasons. After the shootout with Baltimore early last year, he looked poised to make a huge jump into the uper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks. After his concussion problems though, he looked much more pedestrian. This has led to a 6/10 trend score.
The experts have Tua going right around QB12 which translates to a 5/10 consensus score. If this holds true, he would be the last weekly starter in the QB position.
Tua Tagovailoa Stats Analysis
Tua is a high risk, medium reward type player. I don’t really see a path for Tua to finish in the top 4 or 5 quarterbacks this year, but he could definitely scoot up into the mid QB1 range if his concussion problems are truly subsided.
That is the big if, though. Guys with concussion problems don’t often overcome them in the NFL. It is even worse for a quarterback who has to make split-second decisions. Even with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill being the best or second best receiver duo in the league, I find Tua a scary pick this year.
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